Former Armenian Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan, who heads the country’s Freedom (Azatutyun) Party, today said there’s a 50-50 chance that Azerbaijan will attack Armenia in April or May.

Bagratyan, an economist by profession, said the chance of war will increase with the arrival of warmer weather.

"Experience shows that the Turks do not like to be buried in the mud. The danger is more than 50% that there will be an attack on Armenia in April-May,” Bagratyan said.

Bagratyan, along with Democratic Party of Armenia head Aram Sargsyan, at parliament today, announced they have launched a petition drive to recognize the independence of Artsakh.

"We have been to Artsakh. We have been to the Artsakh parliament and met with all the factions. I think the Azerbaijani authorities, together with Armenian authorities, are destroying all the grounds for the recognition of the Artsakh Republic. After the meeting with the Artsakh leadership, we got the impression that nothing is being done to recognize Artsakh or even advance the issue within the framework of the Minsk Group co-chairs," Bagratyan said.

Bagratyan called on Armenians not to have any illusions about signing a peace deal with Azerbaijan, saying Baku has already blown up the gas pipeline to Artsakh and next time will cut all roads and communication links to it.

Bagratyan suggested turning Armenian border villages into military settlements, where both men and women aged 16-60 would receive basic military training.