The answer to the question what was the problem that the recent 4th Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) Congress sought to resolve remains unanswered. In reality, rather than providing answers to existing questions, the Congress raised at least two new issues that in the near term will be the top matter for discussion regarding developments internal to the regime.

First, what relations does the PAP have with Robert Kocharyan, the second president Armenia, and what plans do they share with each other? Second, have certain contradictions surfaced between Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan that could lead to the collapse of the regime’s pyramid structure? It was evident that during its conference the PAP was going out of its way to underline the role of Serzh Sargsyan. Not by accident, President Sargsyan pointedly took advantage of the PAP conference, by way of a long-winded speech, to present his principled approaches to a number of urgent topics. This was something that generally had no precedent in the political arena. However, throughout the entire speech, President Sargsyan deliberately shied away from any internal political issues and thus left the impression that it wasn’t a topic for discussion since everything was under control. It was generally obvious that the president was trying to behave as freely as a home owner in his own house. The president’s office set out the accreditation process for journalists allowed at the congress with complete oversight and it decided what media outlets would be permitted to cover the event. Despite the fact that this was based on the fact that starting now it would be the president’s office that would be handling the accreditation of reporters who could cover functions at which the president was present, there was no clarification as to why the decision to implement this process began with the PAP Congress. And when PAP leader Gagik Tzarukyan declared that the party would continue to support the reforms of Serzh Sargsyan, it became clear that the PAP itself strove to underscore the regime’s unity and unanimity presided over by Serzh Sargsyan. Against the backdrop of all of this, the absence of not only Robert Kocharyan but also the representatives of his team were glaringly evident. Despite the fact that representatives of the entire regime’s top echelon were present at the congress, this list of dignitaries didn’t include Armen Gevorgyan, who is considered to be Robert Kocharyan’s “grey cardinal”. Such a demarche of the Kocharyan wing wouldn’t have been so striking if it hadn’t been for the trial balloons let loose by the PAP before the congress declaring the return of Robert Kocharyan to active politics via the PAP and his pretensions to become prime minister. The question thus arises, in whose interests and for what reason was such disinformation spread if, nevertheless, Kocharyan’s participation in the congress hadn’t been planned for from the very beginning. It must be assumed that, in reality, the course of the “game” had drastically changed, perhaps at the very last moment, just one or two days before the congress. Two facts bear witness to this. First, until that moment, no representative of PAP had ever categorically denied the rumors regarding Kocharyan’s participation in the congress; rumors that had given rise to corresponding expectations that some earth shattering declaration would be mad by the PAP during the conference. Second, just two days before the congress, Victor Soghomonyan, Robert Kocharyan’s press spokesman, officially declared that the second president had no ambitions as to the presidency of the PAP or to the post of prime minister. It remains unclear why Kocharyan’s headquarters had remained silent on the matter up till then. All this signifies that there are two possible versions to the story. Either, Kocharyan’s intentions vis-à-vis the PAP were temporarily postponed or fell through at the last moment, based on a variety of developments or factors, or else the “outflow” of information regarding these intentions was carried out in an organized fashion by the regime, in which both Sargsyan and Kocharyan support circles exist. The latter should be considered very dangerous because without it the bureaucratic-oligarch system could be subject to shake-ups in its hunt for a true “master” and lose its ability to resist. In all likelihood, we are facing the first version. The drastic about-face of Kocharyan’s plans could only have occurred under the influence of powerful factors. One such factor might be that Kocharyan hadn’t received corresponding stimuli from the outside, perhaps specifically from Moscow, to return to the “great game”. If this is the case, then the $500 million Russian  stabilization loan to Armenia can be considered not only as an economic coup for Serzh Sargsyan but a political victory as well even though it still isn’t clear what he must pay in return for this victory. The other possible factor might be based on the March 1st public rally called for by the opposition and the expectations of a certain heightening of tensions afterwards. Kocharyan cannot be blind to the fact that by returning to the front ranks of the regime right before the rally he will surely incite activist oppositional circles in the society and will merely spur them on to work with a greater sense of purpose. The called for public rally will show just how strong the resistance will be to block the road to Kocharyan’s return. Regardless of which version is the true one, Kocharyan’s “false start” is only temporary in nature. Commenting on the possibility of a Kocharyan reappearance on the back of the PAP, Gagik Tzarukyan stated a few days after the party conference that, “When he resurfaces he will disclose his supporters. It is premature and senseless to talk about this now.” That it is merely “premature and senseless to talk about this now” was also confirmed by Kocharyan, when his press spokesman declared the following immediately after the PAP president made the above statement, “Tzarukyan said it all.” Besides this, even during the congress the PAP delicately underlined this fact. By criticizing the government for implementing an incorrect taxation policy, Tzarukyan, in essence showed that he wasn’t burring any bridges with the former president despite showing a preference for the political coalition and Serzh Sargsyan and that for the PAP the demand for the government to resign could become a part of its political agenda at any given moment. However, in this jockeying for position within the regime , it is the Prosperous Armenia Party,  attempting to position itself betwixt the two scales of balance, that mostly comes out on top by assuming the role of an equalizing force and thus takes on a value of equal importance for the two sides. Regardless of whether Robert Kocharyan will use the PAP to ensure his return or not, the possibility of a Serzh Sargsyan-Robert Kocharyan confrontation, as a matter of principle, can all but be ruled out. What is taking place are tactical maneuvers, pure and simple, whose aim can only be the redistribution of circles of influence internal to the regime. Otherwise, such restlessness can quickly lead to a severe crisis within the regime.