Last week the RoA government passed a decision to hold elections for the post of Yerevan mayor on May 31. According to Article 109 of the Law “Regarding Self-Governance in the City of Yerevan”, the date for elections of the municipal council of Yerevan could have been selected during the period of time falling between April 1 and December 6 of this year.

The day for elections couldn’t have been selected later than three months before this. In essence, May 31, was one of the closest days of those possibly chosen in the case of the nine month timeframe In addition to the parties in the ruling coalition, two essential opposition forces have expressed a desire to participate in the municipal council elections, the Armenian National Congress (HAK) and the Heritage Party. This fact promised a very principled election campaign, which was absolutely against the best interests of the regime. Contrary to the State elections, those for the Yerevan mayor can be more or less monitored because they only include the capital. The opposition, by mobilizing its forces, would be afforded the complete possibility of exercising checks on the electoral process; effectively restricting ballot stuffing, pressures brought to bear on local election committees and the potential for other election irregularities. The fact that residents of Yerevan, in comparison to those living in the outlying regions, are less vulnerable socially decreases the chances of the widespread buying of votes through bribes. These two facts restrict the aspirations of the regime to fall back on illegal measures. In essence, the primary method for running an election campaign will remain the implementation of political/publicity technologies, the correct set of tactics to influence the attitudes of the voters. From this point of view, the regime, by choosing the earliest possible date to hold the elections, is firstly aiming to prevent the opposition from seriously preparing for the elections. The calculations have been made based on the fact that the opposition not only wouldn’t have the time to nominate a candidate for the post of mayor or the chance to take a position as to whether they’d enter the fray with a unified ballot or separately. In addition, the Armenian National Congress (HAK) is deprived of its main strike force, its activists, the majority of which are being held in detention. The fact that in all likelihood the changes being made to Articles 225 and 200 of the RoA Criminal Code won’t be adopted or put into effect by the end of April makes it difficult to foresee that these individuals will fill out the ranks of the Armenian National Congress by then and thus allow the organization to reestablish its potential. Furthermore, The Armenian National Congress has directed its primary attention on the plight of the detained activists and their families and the issue of participating in the Yerevan mayoral elections has been visibly placed on the backburner. Thus, by selecting May 31 as the day for the mayoral elections, the regime is attempting to launch the election campaign on an unequal playing field. In this sense, the tactics chosen by the opposition become extremely important. Days before, the Heritage Party decided, “to make a determination regarding the efficacy, format and pre-election list a propos the upcoming elections for the Yerevan city council as a result of negotiations with opposition forces and a wide range of social activists.” This means that the Heritage Party firstly perceives the possibility of participating in the elections with a united team and not separately. This is a direct “message” to the Armenian National Congress to begin negotiations on the matter and to reach a decision as quickly as possible. Naturally, the Armenian National Congress has been in a wait and see mode till now. It is very important for the Congress to gauge to what extent it has retained that resource of social confidence that it obtained exactly one year ago during the days when the movement gathered unprecedented momentum. The upcoming rally on March 1st is important for the Congress primarily for this reason. This is all the more the case if we take into account that the Congress is betting on the support of Yerevan residents to see that the rally serves its purpose, bearing in mind the traditional measures taking by “the powers that be” to prevent those from the regions who wish to participate. Only after this will it become clear to the Congress form what position and with what expectations should it enter into negotiations with other political forces, specifically the Heritage Party, regarding participation in the Yerevan city council elections. There are two factors however that obligate these two forces to participate in the elections with a unified team. First, both of them cannot nominate their leading personalities for the position of mayor. In the case of the Armenian National Congress this is due to the fact that Levon Ter-Petrosyan would never agree to be satisfied with the post of mayor after participating in the presidential elections. The problem is that this would directly signify that the Congress, contrary to all its maximalist aims, would be agreeing and adjust to defeat. Then too, the status of the office of mayor is insufficient to encompass the real magnitude of the Ter-Petrosyan political phenomenon. In the case of the Heritage Party, the obstacle is the restriction as defined by the Law “Regarding Self-Governance in the City of Yerevan”, which prohibits a National Assembly deputy from serving as mayor. This point has frequently been criticized by the Heritage Party. Second, The Armenian National Congress already has experience through its participation in elections for the “Kentron” district leader. The failed campaign of Ararat Zourabyan requires that the political force supporting him adopts a more careful approach to the mayoral elections because another failure falling on the heels of the last could serve to disillusion the Armenian Congress electorate once and for all. Raffi Hovhannesian also has experience at failure in participating in National Assembly elections on a majority slate. In the August 26, 2007 election held for the 15th electoral district he suffered a defeat, coming in last in a field of four. In other words, the Heritage Party has the same trepidations. Consequently, the only realistic approach is the formation of a fusion ticket and putting forth a unified candidate derived through negotiations. The other example is the election for Arabkir district leader where the Heritage candidate also suffered defeat. Naturally, the regime doesn’t have such concerns as it never has suffered a defeat in elections for local self-governance posts. This hasn’t been due to its high esteem or the trust bestowed to it by the public but rather due to the fact that the opposition has rarely contested local elections. In any event, the coalition forces also face the problem of undertaking negotiations because all four parties in the ruling coalition have specific expectations. Even before the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) congress took place, Khachik Galustyan, press spokesperson for party leader Gagik Tzarukyan declared, “If the political forces in the coalition fail to reach an agreement the PAP will participate in the elections on a separate basis.” Meanwhile, the Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) debated the question of participating in the elections internally, without consulting its coalition partners. It decided to put forth three mayoral candidates at the same time – Kentron district leader Gagik Beglaryan, “HayRusGazArd” director Karen Karapetyan, and Yervand Zakharyan, the current mayor of Yerevan. All are HHK members. Given such a stance, the HHK is essentially telling its political party partners the office of Yerevan mayor falls within its “jurisdiction” and even if a fusion ticket is formed its candidate will be elected mayor. This is a wonderful starting point for negotiations and the other coalition forces comprehended the crux of the matter right away for they raised no objections when the HHK chose to debate the issue in private. It was evident, after Serzh Sargsyan gnashed his teeth via the PAP congress, that there could be no talk of serious mutual compromise. At best, the Prosperous Armenia Party, the Rule of Law Party and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation can only vie for current district seats and posts in the Yerevan municipal administration after the elections take place. That’s to say that their negotiations with the Republican Party of Armenia will only deal with the question of how many portfolios as administrative heads each will receive in return for supporting the HHK candidate.