The chosen strategy of refusing to participate in the presidential elections taken by the major Armenian political parties--the Prosperous Armenia Party, the Armenian National Congress and ARF-Dashnaktsutyun--was a concrete action and an expression of political will. But their mutual decision wasn’t a way to promote action; instead it created inaction, self-isolation and marginalization.

Prosperous Armenia and the Congress not only refused to field their own candidate or support another, they withdrew to their dens without even clarifying their positions on the upcoming elections and, especially, their possible actions after the elections. These two powerful parties, which have the biggest potential to influence public opinion, made it clear to society that not only are they unprepared for these elections and any future political struggle, they also take no responsibility.

ARF-Dashnaktsutyun's case is a little different. Although the party said it wouldn't field a candidate thereby misleading its electorate, it avoided being completely left out of the game. Although isolated, ARF-Dashnaktsutyun clarified some rules of the game for itself-- it wouldn't support the incumbent president under any circumstances and more importantly, unlike Prosperous Armenia, it didn’t refuse to develop a common political platform and be guided by that. Rather, the party declared it as their main goal regardless of the election outcome.

The question here is not whether the proposal of such ideas and principles is fabricated or real, whether ARF-Dashnaktsutyun is being honest or how persistent it will be in pursuing those issues in future. What's important is providing a basis for justifying being left in the political arena. ARF-Dashnaktsutyun might not find enough arguments to do so, but it positioned itself as a passive observer just like Prosperous Armenia and the Congress. It's hard to say if the party will be able to overcome its situation after the elections.

Anyway, this act of complete self-isolation made by Prosperous Armenia and the Congress, and the partial self-isolation of ARF-Dashnaktsutyun, brought them to a deadlock that is quite difficult to break in a normal social and political environment. By not participating in these elections, they also cannot dispute the results for the simple reason being that they refuse to monitor them. Willingly or not, they are legitimizing Serzh Sargsyan's election regardless of the number of violations and fraud.

The illegality factor of the authorities is no longer a part of a political agenda. If there is any attempt to turn the elections into a recurrence of a political struggle, the authorities and society as well will remind them about having chosen political self-isolation. That means no matter how much they may want to, their efforts towards consolidating the public would be ineffective for at least one or two years. No one would believe them.

Elections are the only legal and constitutional way to change a political situation and achieve power. They actually refused to use that means. But they also can't offer revolutionary solutions, as the policy of self-isolation prevents them from doing so. They wouldn't be able to prove that Serzh Sargsyan is an illegitimate president. Organizing any revolutionary movement without having a basis for the president's illegitimacy will deem their struggle, and each one of them, unconstitutional. The government would have a right to suppress the development of any movement and at least gain loyalty if not support from abroad.

Thus, there could be a situation where the existence of these political powers would be an end in itself. But the most dangerous thing is that only the government would be able to break the deadlock and rescue them from final marginalization. That was the case for some political powers seemingly in the same situation, like Artashes Geghamyan's National Unity party, Hayk Babukhanyan's Constitutional Right Union, Khosrov Harutyunyan's Christian Democratic Party and Arthur Baghdasaryan's Rule of Law party.

That's why it seems realistic that after the presidential elections some of these opposition powers might form a coalition or, at least, collaborate with the government.

On the other hand, Armenia is not subject to any political standards and measures, so nothing can be ruled out, no matter how fantastic.