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Sona Avagyan

Resumption of Armenia-Azerbaijan War a Possibility

International Crisis Group Calls for Urgent Measures In a February 8, 2011 report entitled "Armenia and Azerbaijan; Preventing War", the International Crisis Group argues that, "An arms race, escalating front-line clashes, vitriolic war rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks are increasing the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back to war over Nagorno-Karabakh."

The organization sates that conditions for the status-quo still holding have seriously deteriorated over the past years and that periodic skirmishes on the frontline could easily spiral out of control with disastrous effects for both sides. The report argues that the status quo, deeply damaging to Baku, just might prompt "Azerbaijan public opinion and leadership will feel justified to use the military assets Baku has been accumulating at an increased rate." The Crisis Group says that, "Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh – aware of this time line and the risk of a nationalist gamble – may be tempted to try a pre-emptive strike."

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