Many have said while speaking of the upcoming presidential elections that there is the need for a new person, that everyone - both the authorities and the opposition, both the old and the new - has outlived their time.  This could be true, if it weren’t so obviously false.  It is false because there is no need for a new person and there could not be one because of a number of reasons.

The structure of our country does not allow for someone to establish themselves in politics, because, for example, the mayor of the capital or the heads of provinces are not elected, elections for seats in parliament are a formality and so on.  So any new person who tries to enter the field could be asked - who are you, what experience do you have, what have you achieved in life?

Armenia is under an information blockade.  All the mass media outlets accessible to the general public are under state regulation and they all try to avoid political, social, and controversial issues in order to save themselves from potential problems - rather, they give slots to shows, soap operas, lotteries and other such programs.  Thus, a politician looking to establish himself in the field has no way to reach the public.  Sources of funding are closed as well.  No businessman dares finance political projects because of the problems that might come up with the authorities.

And finally, there is the unresolved conflict in Karabakh, the details of which are kept secret.  Anybody who tries to be the “new kid on the block” can be disqualified by the claim that he or she is unaware of the negotiation process in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

Besides all this, sixteen years is not enough time for a new generation of politicians to come up.

Those who seek a new person understand the necessity for a change in government, thus automatically rejecting the participation of anyone currently in power.  That leaves one with a choice from among the opposition, but let us first consider the camps within the government that may decide to participate in the elections.

The ARF, which has been in government constantly over the past ten years, is trying to make a smooth transition to the other side, but their cooperation with Robert Kocharyan and the Republican Party does not inspire confidence in their ability to improve the situation.  The ARF has never been hugely popular since its establishment in Armenia    and has its own limited electorate, united not in their affection for the party, but rather around a certain conviction about it.

Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law) - who was in power from 1998 through 2005 - also has a stable, if small, electorate of its own.  The party has ended up “offside” after its collapse and the resignation of Artur Baghdasaryan from his position of Parliament Speaker.  It is neither in power, nor is it an opposition party.  I think that Orinats Yerkir cannot be a major player in these elections because it needs time to reorganize and reconsider.

Raffi Hovhannisyan’s Heritage Party also has a stable but small electorate.  The leader of this party, which managed to secure its presence in the current Parliament, has the potential to be the new person, but he does not have clear answers to the questions which are bothering the population.  Populism is an obstacle to honesty in his case and his desire for popularity has led to the avoidance of honest answers.

The traditional opposition, which was until recently called the Justice alliance, has been dissolved.  The main actors in Justice, Stepan Demirchyan (APP) and Aram Z. Sargsyan (Republic) have understood that they are not in starring roles for the upcoming elections and are ready to be with Levon Ter-Petrosyan, if he puts his candidacy forward.  It is hard to predict what they would do if the first President of Armenia were not to be a candidate.

Arshak Sadoyan, Shavarsh Kocharyan, Hrant Khachatryan and Aram G. Sargsyan together have a total score of around zero and, having realized that, have begun to play Serzh Sargsyan’s game.  Their strategy is mainly aimed against Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who has not announced his candidacy clearly yet.  Once again, it is unclear what they would do if Ter-Petrosyan decided not to participate in the elections.  Maybe they would support Vazgen Manukyan as part of their services to Serzh Sargsyan.

Vazgen Manukyan has announced his intention to stand alone, but since his ADU lags behind Orinats Yerkir and Heritage as far as popular support is concerned, his participation will do little more than provide diversity, which is not a danger to the ruling candidate, even if it is not an advantage.

That leaves Artashes Geghamyan, who the public has had difficulty understanding since the 2003 elections when the leader of National Unity, showing a sense of disunity, went to the elections alone.  Many people thought then, as they do now, that victory would have been guaranteed for a united opposition.

Who can be the NEW PERSON in this situation? Levon Ter-Petrosyan?  If we go by the saying that “anything new is just something old that has been forgotten,” maybe.  But let us not rush into things, because the first President of Armenia has only given a speech and has not said anything about coming forward as a candidate.

There is nobody new and there will not be one.  That much is obvious.  Therefore, maybe there should be a different approach - instead of looking for a new person, one should look for new solutions to old problems.