For the past twenty-five years, starting way back in 1984, it has become a time-honored tradition for U.S. presidents to deliver a commemorative statement in honor of the victims of the Armenian Genocide. The debate rages on twenty-five years later – will the president actually use the word “Genocide” when he makes his April 24th remarks?

This year, however, the hopes of the Armenian people that he will are running higher than ever before. The prospects that the U.S. government will officially recognize the 1915 Genocide have grown due to several factors.

The first factor that could compel Barack Obama to utter the “G” word is his promise to do so during his presidential campaign. In addition, the current crisis in Israeli-Turkish relations might force the powerful American-Jewish lobby to at least not work against congressional efforts to recognize the Genocide. On the other hand, other factors have arisen that could once again prevent developments from leading to the desired result of recognition.

The most important factor, naturally, is the thesis being circulated by Ankara that relations between Armenia and Turkey have reached a critical breakthrough stage and that any outside “intervention” could harm the process now in progress.

“We do not use threatening rhetoric,” declared Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan, “All we are saying is that if you pass the resolution we will act accordingly. We are sincerely telling them (the Americans) the truth about the present situation in the South Caucasus. A settlement of the issues dividing Armenia and Turkey has never been any closer at hand. We are at the closest point now with Armenia than we have been since 1915. I don’t say that we have reached a settlement but we are arriving at one.” Turkish-American relations have seen better days as well and in all likelihood Washington will be careful not to risk taking any steps that might sharpen tensions even further. U.S. secretary of State Hillary Clinton during her recent trip to Turkey took part in a NTV television women’s program entitled “Come and Join Us”.

The show has a very intimate and relaxed format and four women from different professional backgrounds serve as commentators, discussing a wide range of subjects with the invited guest. According to certain reports, it was the American diplomatic corps in Ankara that was responsible for getting Clinton to appear on the program with the aim of shaping a positive image of the United States in light of recent anti-American sentiment within segments of the Turkish society, In general, the visit of the U.S. Secretary of State to Ankara can play a pivotal role in Turkish efforts to thwart any recognition of the Armenian Genocide on the part of Washington.

In the view of the analysts, where this issue is concerned, Hillary Clinton can become a trusted defender of the Turkish position in the United States not only in terms of preventing Barack Obama from uttering the word genocide  but also in thwarting the U.S. Congress from passing such a resolution.

Predictions regarding President Obama’s upcoming April 24 statement are still being formulated. In the opinion of Richard Giragosian, Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS), for example, President Obama will not use the term “genocide” in this year’s speech.

“Obama’s a clever person. So that they won’t condemn him for breaking his promise to the American-Armenian community he’ll say that he’s waiting for the decision of the U.S. Congress. If the Congress passes a resolution recognising the Armenian Genocide, Barack Obama will sign the legislation and thus fulfil his promise. If not, then so be it,” notes Mr. Giragosian.

They are also mulling over the appropriateness of the move in the United States given the present situation. “…good relations between Armenia and Turkey will expand American prospects in the Caucasus,” writes Newsweek Magazine, “the planned for hydro-carbon corridor stretching from Central Asia through the Caucasus would seem more secure in the context of Turkish-Armenian friendly relations and it can instill confidence in Armenia to break the existing  status-quo with neighboring Azerbaijan regarding the long simmering Karabakh conflict.

The Congress and others must understand that this year is indeed promising in terms of reconciliation between the Turkish and Armenian peoples. If nothing comes out as a result, the Congress can always return to the resolution.”

Then too, Ankara’s continual and stubborn claims that Armenian-Turkish relations are close to being settled and that any third party intervention in the process is impermissible actually serves to further restrict Ankara’s possibilities of conditioning the resolution of Armenian-Turkish relations on a third government; in this case on its relations with Azerbaijan. It is clear that regarding the priority of preconditions previously set forth   vis-a-vis the opening of the border and the establishment of diplomatic relations, Turkey will be obliged to withdraw from its adopted policy of regarding the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as a precondition.

If the recognition of the Genocide by the United States can hinder the “reconciliation process then, by the same token, it can prevent Ankara from putting forth demands regarding the Karabakh conflict. This is very well understood in Baku and is probably the reason behind Baku’s suspicious attitude regarding the processes underway in Armenian-Turkish relations.

“Turkey intends to improve its relations with Armenia at the expense of our country’s interests…” writes the Azeri Press Agency, adding that, “…Turkey removed the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh from the discussions to avoid recognition of the “Armenian Genocide” this year. And what price will it be willing to pay in the years to come?” Given the existing situation Ankara is attempting to wring out examples of “goodwill” from Yerevan as well.

Ankara will attempt tom portray Any corresponding move on the part of Yerevan during this period as an indirect agreement on the Armenian side that in the present stage of Armenian-Turkish relations it is not worth endangering the process by superfluous statements. Only in this case will Ankara’s thesis be convincing. Reports periodically appearing in the Turkish press particularly bear this out.

The statement of RoA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan in which he referred to the possible participation of Turkey in the construction of a new Armenian nuclear reactor was interpreted in the Turkish press as “another sign in the thaw between Ankara and Yerevan”.

Two weeks ago a news report appeared in Today’s Zaman stating that the Armenian government had changed the date of the session of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation organization’s foreign ministerial meeting set to take place in Yerevan from April 29 to April 16 as a “goodwill gesture” intended to ensure the participation of Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan.

The newspaper alluded to the fact that Babacan’s visit to Armenia might not be possible after April 24 for a number of reasons. The news report made a reference to diplomatic circles as the source. The RoA Foreign Affairs Ministry refuted the news stating that April 16 had been picked as the date from the start and that the news was just the opinion of the Turkish newspaper.

Also of note is the statement of Egemen Baghis, Turkey’s Minister of State, of two weeks ago claiming that Turkey had taken all possible steps to normalize relations with Armenia and that the ball was now in Yerevan’s court. Thus, it becomes clear that Turkey expects Yerevan’s assistance in the delaying of any Armenian Genocide resolution on the part of Washington.

As Today’s Zaman writes that the April 6-7 forum of the Civilizations Alliance that will convene in Ankara can serve as a good opportunity for this when, “Babacan and Nalbandian will come to an agreement and declare that a new beginning has dawned between the two nations, replete with new challenges and possibilities.

This would be a good message to the entire world that risks are overcome solely via peaceful means and negotiations.” In the present reality, the following dilemma possibly awaits Yerevan – choose the recognition of the Armenian Genocide by the United States (if, of course, the position of Yerevan has the possibility of playing any role), or decisive forward movement in Armenian-Turkish relations (if, of course, the parties involved are sincere regarding their desires and are nor conducting a policy of pretense or bluff).