By Tavit Asdvadzadourian One might guess the process of conflict settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh to be a multi stage process leading to a certain compromising but satisfactory solution to both conflicting parties. The steps involved in this complex process might be:

1. Agreement on the principles of negotiations from both sides with the mediation and help of the Minsk OSCE group co chairs
2. Discussion  and finalization of the details based on the  agreed principles
3. Implementation

Since the 1994 ceasefire, the hectic negotiations are stuck in step one above. The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan are trying to agree on set of basic principles.While the bulk and the mass of the activity in terms of time, logistic and effort are in 2 and 3, the crucial point is the agreement on the principles, referred to as Madrid Principles which in broader terms defined as self determination, territorial integrity and non-use of force. The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia), Bernard Fassier (France) and Robert Bradtke (U.S.) and their predecessors are the most optimistic players in these whole negotiations. They constantly confirm with satisfaction the commitment of the parties to reach a peaceful settlement within the framework of the Madrid Principles. They also declare that both parties are in general in agreement with Madrid Principles with minor reservations. At every opportunity and after each meeting the co chairs keep declaring good news, progress and an imminent agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. A glance through the Armenian and Azeri media will show that these three expressions (self determination, territorial integrity and non use of force) mean totally different things to Armenians and Azeris. Based on their own biased understanding and without any corrections by the co chairs, Azerbaijan sees a   Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan while Armenia sees Nagorno Karanakh as a full fledged independent state. The Madrid principles, by definition, are an oxymoron. There is a serious clash by definition between self determination and territorial integrity. Both can not be genuinely true and applicable at the same time. And yet the whole negotiations of the last 14 years are based on these conflicting oxymoron principles. Azerbaijan’s  understanding of the  Madrid principles in general is  the return of all the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control, an interim status for Karabakh providing guarantees for security and self-governance, and the future determination of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will. And of course the expression means the will of all the 8.6 million population of Azerbaijan,   same position and attitude taken before 1988 war. Armenia’s understanding of the Madrid principles is de facto full independence of Nagorno-Karabakh based on the principle of peoples self-determination , in this case the 137,700 Armenians , a linkage to Armenia through Lachin corridor, security of the Armenians in NKR , ceasing of  Azeri hostilities   and may be return of ‘some’ of the occupied territories . Today the conflicting parties are even further apart in signing a permanent peace treaty than they were ten years ago. At some point in the last decade, Armenia almost agreed to highest form of self determination within Azerbaijan for NK. Azerbaijan offered to share some gas pipeline revenue with Armenia.  Today those concessions are totally off the negotiation table and they are not even mentioned. Under these tough circumstances it is very obvious that the imminent task of the Minsk group today is to maintain the dialogue and to avoid an undesirable and a disastrous   war. This has been their primary task for the last 10 years and probably will be their task for the foreseeable future. A war between these two countries will be devastating not only to Armenia and Azerbaijan but to the whole region and will impact energy supplies to Europe.  Both countries have stockpiled all kinds of weapons and arms, including tanks, Migs, unmanned drones and helicopters in the midst of a serious arms race and daily ceasefire violations. With all the new military aircraft acquired, this unwanted war can easily expand beyond Nagorno-Karabakh to Baku and Yerevan. It is chilling thought for any Azeri or Armenian no matter where they live, but the possibilities of this bloody war presently are out there. The ugly war is being mentioned and reminded day after day by Azerbaijani government and the readiness of the Armenians to face the war is being stated and confirmed accordingly.