Serzh Sargsyan Seeks to Consolidate Pre-Election Support and More Recently, in an address to California Armenian community representatives, Armenia’s Ministry of the Diaspora Hranush Hakobyan uttered the following words – “We want to change the Constitution of Armenia in order to transform the parliament into a bicameral institution with an upper and lower house. The upper house would be the Senate and would include diaspora Armenians.” It’s hard to say if the minister got a directive from the president’s office to make such an official statement while in the United States which created quite a shock back in Armenia. It is clear, however, that such an idea exists. President Sargsyan has yet to publicly deny it. Immediately after the minister’s speech, Armen Arzoumanyan, the presidential press secretary, said, “Back in May, 2010, during a meeting of the Board of Trustees of the All Armenia Fund, there was a discussion regarding the expansion of Armenia-diaspora relations and that members come back with proposals along these lines in a year’s time.” The press secretary’s comments show that a preliminary political decision in this direction had already been reached; at least that’s the impression one gets. Using it as a trial balloon, the president’s office now wants to gauge the public sentiment regarding the general idea. Mr. Arzoumanyan’s observation that, “the adoption of such a decision requires public hearings and detailed professional study”, wasn’t accidental. But why now and why has the idea been placed high on the agenda for discussion in the diaspora? The juxtaposition of the statements by the president’s office and the minister sow that despite the one year time limit set down at the meeting of the All Armenia Fund Board, the Diaspora Minister has jumped the gun and let the cat out of the bag. Furthermore, the minister has only raised the proposal to create a Senate and has essentially presented it to American-Armenians as the president’s initiative. But there was another proposal on the table – the concept of creating a pan-diasporic structure. The idea belongs to Harout Sassounian, editor of the California Courier and a well-known political commentator. The concept of establishing a Senate was first circulated by the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF). More precisely, it was broached by ARF Bureau member Hrand Markarian in early December 2010, during a commemoration of the party’s 120th anniversary in Toronto “Yes, there exists a pan-Armenian structure and that structure is the Armenian state. Let us expand the parameters of the National Assembly or develop a higher pan-Armenian new senate. Let us make it truly pan-Armenian and allow representatives from overseas,” Markarian said. So it turns out that the Minister of the Diaspora declares the intention of the president, right on the heels, just two months after the ARF proposed basically the same thing. On the other hand, the Armenian government preferred to initially broach the subject not in Armenia, where there is the issue of a change in the Constitution and thus, where its citizens, from a moral perspective at least, have the right to be the first informed, but in the United States, where the ARF has traditionally been the most powerful of the traditional parties. Based on these two realities, we can conclude that the president, by floating the idea of the Senate, wishes to solve at least two tactical problems. First, this was a gesture/nod to the ARF. To guarantee his position in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections to follow, Serzh Sargsyan needs to garner the assistance of the ARF. This is especially true in light of the yearnings of the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), now a coalition member, to go it alone. Also, Serzh Sargsyan needs to prevent any potential teaming up of the PAP with the ARF. If such a tandem were to be established, Serzh Sargsyan’s plans to create a centralized authority would fail. In reality, the only reason the ARF quit the ruling coalition in the first place was the Armenia-Turkish football diplomacy and the government’s deafest policy regarding the Karabakh issue. Serzh Sargsyan has significantly toughened his position on these two fronts in 2010; which corresponds to the expectations of the ARF. If he wins the support of the ARF regarding the creation of a Senate, Serzh Sargsyan can also be confident of regaining the support of the ARF’s voting bloc. In this context, the president’s recent tactical moves place the ARF into a real awkward position and the party faces a cul-de-sac. Second, Serzh Sargsyan is trying to restore his damaged authority in the diaspora due to his failed initiative of Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. It is also sends a clear message to Turkey which has adopted a policy of creating a rift in Armenian-diaspora relations. President Sargsyan wants to make it clear that the Armenian position will only toughen as a result of Ankara’s attempts to stall the rapprochement process. In any event, of primary importance, is what this initiative to create a bicameral parliament will bring to Armenia and the diaspora. This is another issue entirely requiring a much deeper analysis. Stay tuned.