Policy Forum Armenia (PFA),a Washington-based international think tank, today announced the publication of its State of the Nation Report on “Armenia and the West: A New Vision for the Caucasus”.

It offers some out-of-the-box thinking that challenges prevailing views about Western involvement in Armenia and the Caucasus.

The report essentially points out a critical handicapping factor (Armenia’s leadership and governance), and lays out a vision for the country’s role in the region under a leadership that would enjoy widespread support among its people; understand and stay current with global trends; and maintain a reasonable degree of independence from foreign interference.

The report states that, if implemented in practical terms, a leadership change of this nature would unleash Armenia’s developmental potential and effectively lead to the proposed foreign policy reorientation.

The report notes that while Armenia has its current problems, the West has lost a valuable opportunity to steer Armenia toward more democracy and better governance.

However, recent developments in the wider region bring new opportunities for the West to forge stronger ties with Armenia. Yet, as argued in the report, this cannot be done under the current ruling regime which has squandered the country’s economic and geopolitical potential and brought Armenia close to a point of no-return.

The report provides a thorough review of Armenia’s bilateral relations with all its neighbors and Russia. While it recognizes the gravity of the current status quo that relies heavily on Russia’s meddling in Armenia’s domestic and foreign policy choices, it proposes a way out. The report notes that Russia’s control of Armenia is working against the long-run interests of both countries.  

While analyzing the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, the report lays out three possible scenarios. The most attractive scenario for Armenia-one that requires strengthening the country’s economy and defense capabilities to retain control over Nagorno-Karabakh—is one that would also bring stability to the region and allow the creation of a Transcaucasian economic market for the benefit of all players.

In terms of Armenia’s attractiveness for the West, the report lays out a vision in which Armenia plays the role of a key corridor for de-blockading Iran, when Western sanctions are lifted; acts as a reliable partner for Georgia in an otherwise very volatile region; and presents itself as a potential buffer against Turkey’s neo-Ottoman aspirations in the region.