An unnamed source from the Russian Foreign Ministry informed the Russian mass media immediately following the Bucharest meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan (June 4-5, 2006) that Robert Kocharyan and Ilham Aliyev had not been able to agree upon two principal matters - the width of the Lachin corridor and the status of Nagorno Karabakh. Commenting on this statement, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamadyarov said at a June 7 th press conference in Baku that there were other issues as well on which Azerbaijan could not agree.

The Karabakh settlement process is kept confidential; however, considering some comments leaked to the press and statements by the most senior officials of Armenia and Azerbaijan and the previous four OSCE Minsk Group proposals (the 1997 package deal, the 1997 step-by-step approach, the 1998 common state proposal - already published in the press, and the 2001 Key West proposals - not published but leaked to some journalists) it's possible to develop a rough idea of what is put on the negotiating table.

First, let us sum up the sixth meeting between Kocharyan and Aliyev and the consequent statements. Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanyan said at a June 8 th press conference and in an interview with Kentron TV the same day, " The issue that the presidents discussed and tried to solve is very complicated indeed. This was the same issue that was put before the presidents at Rambouillet. It wasn't solved then and it hasn't been solved now, either." In response to the question of what the optimistic hopes about favorable results from the Bucharest summit had been based upon Oskanyan said, "Every time new formulations and approaches to certain issues of principle appear on the negotiating table, each party cherishes hopes that it will succeed in persuading the other side in the course of negotiations. It didn't happen in Bucharest. But the window is still open." The minister stressed that Armenia's position remains unchanged: Yerevan is ready to discuss the issues related to dealing with the consequences of the conflict (the territories under Armenian control, the return of refugees, the security matters) only if Azerbaijan recognizes the right of the people of Nagorno Karabakh to self-determination. Official Yerevan has on numerous occasions, including through the lips of its defense minister, stated that the Armenian side is ready to make territorial concessions for the sake of a Karabakh settlement and the establishment of peace in the region. Oskanyan confirmed once more, " Armenia, in return for recognition of the Karabakh people's right to self-determination, is ready to seriously discuss the issue of territories."

Are there principles that Armenia opposes? "At the initial stage there were. But today, since the issue of the right of Nagorno Karabakh to self-determination is on the table, the situation has changed substantially. Today the issue of the self-determination of the people of Nagorno Karabakh is on the table as one of the most important principles of the Karabakh settlement. After the inclusion of this principle into the negotiations agenda, the discussion of some unacceptable issues has become easier for us. I would repeat what I have said many times: only after the right of the people of Nagorno Karabakh is fixed and recognized will it be possible to seriously discuss the remaining issues," Oskanyan replied.

A problem cannot be solved without compromises - this is a common truth, but where is the limit, the red line that the Armenian side has no right to cross? The Armenian side is silent about this, although it doesn't deny the statements by the Azerbaijani side that, except for the Lachin corridor and Kelbadjar, Yerevan is ready to return all the other territories during the first stage - Kubatlu, Zangelan, Jebrail, Fizuli and Aghdam. Incidentally, all four OSCE Minsk Group proposals clearly state that Armenian and Karabakh forces are to be withdrawn from all seven regions under their control, with the exception of the Lachin corridor.

Now, let us return for a moment to the Rambouillet Palace where, last February, Kocharyan and Aliyev failed to agree upon one complicated issue. What was that issue? Authoritative international media reported after the meeting that it was the issue of Kelbadjar, or more clear-cut - that the Armenian forces were ready to evacuate this region too, which, by the way has invaluable military, strategic and security importance for both Armenian states (let alone the water resources - the Arpa, Vorotan, Tartar and Khachen Rivers that originate here), on the condition that Baku agree to recognize the results of a proposed referendum to be held in Nagorno Karabakh. Both in Rambouillet and in Bucharest this was the very issue that led the negotiations to a dead-end. In fact, Kocharyan and Aliyev cannot get past one complicated issue, consisting of two principal components - Kelbadjar and the referendum in Nagorno Karabakh.

The recent statement on the subject by the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried is remarkable, especially when we compare it with the comments by the unnamed source from the Russian foreign ministry that Robert Kocharyan and Ilham Aliyev could not agree upon two principal matters - the width of the Lachin corridor and the status of Nagorno Karabakh. Daniel Fried said, "The co-chairs offered a number of ideas to solve the conflict. We have offered these ideas to the leaders as a neutral side, without defending the interests of any of them. However, as US representative, I hope that Azerbaijan can restore as many of its lands as possible and refugees can come back to their native lands soon. Both parties to the conflict have certain interests. There are different options of solution; we offered the optimal one. Everything depends on the presidents now."

When we discuss the issue of the land link between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh, i.e. the Lachin corridor, we should note that we are not talking about just a Goris-Lachin-Stepanakert or a Vardenis-Kelbadjar-Martakert road. A corridor is more than a road. According to military experts, the corridor must be at list 42 kilometers wide to be secure and to prevent the adversary's weapons and equipment from hindering the safe passage between Armenia and Karabakh.

Incidentally, Presidents Kocharyan and Aliyev once again stated their positions and underscored their differences vis-à-vis the status of Nagorno Karabakh in their speeches during the Black Sea Forum for Dialogue and Partnership in Bucharest. Kocharyan stated, "The people of Nagorno Karabakh have implemented in practice the right for self-determination. It was done fully in line with the requirements of international law. The results of the referendum on independence were later defended in the war forced on that people. Now for fifteen years, the Nagorno Karabakh Republic continues to prove its right for independence by own achievements in effective statecraft. A whole generation has grown up there, which sees itself as possessors and defenders of that statehood. We believe that there is a need for effective efforts for the full-scale integration of the republic in the international society." And Aliyev maintained, "We will never agree to Nagorno Karabakh's secession or to the declaration of its independence. Azerbaijan will never compromise over its territorial integrity. The territorial integrity of Azerbaijan has been recognized by all the states and it cannot be the subject of talks."

Armenia acknowledges that Azerbaijan receives oil dollars and this is one of the reasons it doesn't wish to make compromises in the negotiating process. Vartan Oskanyan stresses, " There is a border of compromises, a red line we cannot cross even if the settlement is protracted or Azerbaijan blackmails us with oil dollars and the appliance of force. Armenia has already made serious compromises for the settlement of the conflict. We have done what we were expected to do. We made compromises, but Azerbaijan has not taken corresponding steps and that is why we cannot reach an agreement. It means that we have no alternative; we have to reconcile to this situation. Not reconcile and sit and wait, but try to keep up with competition - to mobilize our forces, to involve the Diaspora, to propose new projects, to make our state more democratic, to get more investments."

Oskanyan also noted that with the exploitation of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Azerbaijan's oil exports could reach 800,000 barrels a day. "Azerbaijan, which so far has been exporting 300,000 barrels of oil daily, lags behind Armenia in its GNP per capita, according to the World Bank. Under the conditions of the blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan, we have been able to keep up the competition. So the situation is not hopeless," the minister said. Incidentally, Minister of Energy and Industry of Azerbaijan Natik Aliyev stated recently that in 2008, Azerbaijan would start exporting gas. This will be possible after the exploitation of the Shah-Deniz gas field and the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipeline.

Photo by Martin Shahbazyan