Interview with Alexander Arzoumanian, Minister of Foreign Affair of Armenia, 1996-1998

How would you assess the internal political situation in Armenia?

The behavior of senior officials in Armenia attests to the fact that the country's political system is on the verge of collapse. Both the internal political situation and international developments have led to the marginalization of the regime. The limits of what the regime is able to do have narrowed and the methods it uses to maintain its dominance have become ineffective. The upcoming elections of 2007 and 2008 have created within the governing camp an atmosphere of intra-system fear for its own future. The regime has nothing to offer anymore and cannot justify its relevance to the country.

Has the withdrawal of the Orinats Yerkir party from the governing coalition played a role here?

Although the senior officials have done whatever they can to persuade the public at large that nothing extraordinary has happened within the governing system with Orinats Yerkir's leaving the coalition, they themselves realize that the foundation that the government's ability to function is based on has crumbled. The rules of the game established in the 2003 coalition agreement, based on which the regime has functioned so far, no longer exist. Kocharyan now finds himself beyond the control of the coalition parties, and can act at his own discretion. He has skillfully taken control of the parliamentary corps, in fact turning the Republicans and the Dashnaks into a parliamentary minority. The government and the parliament are under his thumb.

The foundation of Kocharyan's authority is the power ministries and the business elite. No other political force or official is in control of these structures. They cannot control these structures for a simple reason - these structures don't submit to any one else. They don't submit because they don't understand what's going on. This is natural. For the first time we have a situation in Armenia where the acting president is required to leave his office in 2008. For the clan system, this situation doesn't make sense. A clan never yields its position; it does all it can to preserve its existence. But the current situation makes preserving its existence impossible. Therefore, each member of the clan is trying to solve his problems on his own. And here the initiative is in Kocharyan's hands.

How so?

Kocharyan has decided to solve the problem of his own personal future at the expense of everybody else. As for how he is going to do it, no one knows yet. But everyone realizes that he will stop at nothing. The fate of his former companions-in-arms doesn't interest him much. Since Orinats Yerkir withdrew from the coalition, the parliamentary business elite has found itself in a rather paradoxical situation. For the big businesses, the parliamentary mandates acted like a shield, in other words, guaranteed the protection of their property. Besides, in exchange for their service, the businessmen-parliamentarians expected from the government preferential terms for their businesses. And that's how it was as long as the governing camp didn't split up.

But didn't all the businessmen-parliamentarians from Orinats Yerkir immediately leave the party, once again assuring Kocharyan of their obedience?

At present, the property of businessmen with parliamentary mandates is becoming a target for Kocharyan's political ambitions - creating the danger of losing that property. The degree of their obedience has increased sharply. None of the businessmen knows Kocharyan's political plans, and this deepens their anxiety. Moreover, Kocharyan's actions don't suggest a desire to transfer power to his political base, the Republican Party, or to Serge Sargsyan.

Kocharyan is confidently expanding his political party, Prosperous Armenia, without taking anyone into consideration. At the same time, no businessmen or influential officials are allowed to join the party. Such a governing camp is a novelty for Armenia. The question arises-if the people in Kocharyan's environment have no place in his party, then where is their place going to be? This is not an idle question, since the nomenklatura wants to know its place in the future governing system. They want to know, but nobody tells them.

The anxiety of these so-called influential people has now become palpable. Serge Sargsyan, Andranik Margaryan, and Aghvan Hovsepyan are beginning to realize that they have no place in Kocharyan's plans. They are amazed, since the logic of the clan system should have made this impossible. And they even attempt independent initiatives, all the while remaining keenly aware that the guarantee of their strength lies in supporting Kocharyan.

But Serge Sargsyan doesn't conceal his presidential ambitions.

Many people thought that if Kocharyan had to leave, the most obvious step would have been to strengthen the Republican Party, putting Serge Sargsyan at its helm and shoving this army into power. But that is not what Kocharyan is doing. To all appearances, Kocharyan has realized, or has been made to understand, that such a plan for transferring power would lead directly to a revolutionary situation. Such a reproduction of power would serve as a catalyst for the consolidation of the people, and the political forces and the regime, with its old and new faces alike, would become the target of this revolutionary energy.

Will the opposition benefit from Arthur Baghdasaryan's joining it?

Arthur Baghdasaryan's joining the opposition might animate the opposition movement to some extent. The regime has created a potential avenger for itself. Irrespective of whether the public is indifferent, whether it doesn't trust anyone including Baghdasaryan, the enfeeblement thrust on the public at large over the years has, perforce, produced a certain vengefulness. Sociological surveys attest that our society is in search of an avenger figure, no matter who that avenger might be.

The public consciousness in Armenia has become irrational, and any force, even a radically destructive one, will be able to win public sympathy if it demonstrates the ability to punish the regime.

What developments can we expect?

Developments will be sudden. The political system of Armenia will, of necessity, undergo reform. The regime knows that these changes may be qualitative, unraveling the internal political tangle even before the 2007 parliamentary elections. That is why the desire of some officials to artificially accelerate the reproduction of power has become noticeable. But Kocharyan himself hinders everyone. Therefore, we may witness some anti-Kocharyan sallies from within the governing system, on the part of those who see their imminent political demise.

But an internal coup will not satisfy the people. Not even their hatred of Kocharyan will induce the people to support any part of this system that is corrupt to the core, no matter how they may try to use the people's hatred to prolong their own existence. They will all have to leave together. There is no alternative.

Of course, it would be better if the people didn't choose vengeance. A lot will depend on the political forces in Armenia. A policy of reforms should be implemented based on the values of independence, statehood, and democracy. After all, political change only has value if it leads to the establishment of full-fledged constitutional order in Armenia. Otherwise, it's in vain.

Hetq