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Tatul Hakobyan

Strategic Partnership or Incomprehensible Indifference?

It has finally become known that Russia has bought, or rather, will buy by January 1, 2007 the last strategically significant energy source of Armenia – the 40-kilometer section of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline currently under construction . Last spring, when the Armenian government sold the 5 th energy unit of the Hrazdan thermoelectric power station (TPS) to Russia, persistent rumors were already spreading that ArmRosGazprom, cjsc had also bought the Armenian section of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline.

O n April 6 , 2006 a press-release was posted on Gazprom's official website stating that the energy giant had signed a contract to buy from the Armenian government the first 40-kilometer section of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline currently under construction, and that ArmRosGazprom, cjsc (in which Gazprom owns a 45-percent share) would be the construction contractor for the 197-kilometer-long second section of the pipeline , but t he next day, the press release on the Gazprom website was altered to contain no references to the pipeline. Since the deal on the 5 th energy unit of the Hrazdan TPS had caused a certain amount of public discontent, high-level Armenian officials stated one after another that the gas pipeline had not been sold. However, it turns out now that Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan, Defense Minister Serge Sargsyan and Energy Minister Armen Movsisyan were simply deceiving the general public.

Only Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian didn't avoid admitting the deal. At his April 21 st press conference, the foreign minister said: “I don't, frankly, have an answer to that; I know there are discussions, negotiations over it. This pipeline doesn't even exist yet; we are talking here about selling something that doesn't exist. But today we should talk about who is going to build it, who is going to pay for the construction. I believe the ongoing negotiations are about this. You will, naturally, ask that if they pay for it and build it then they will, possibly, own it as well. Perhaps, but I am not negotiating myself and I don't have all the details at the moment, because the matter is in a fairly vague state; however, if you're asking the specific question of whether I rule out the selling of the Iran-Armenia pipeline to Gazprom or not – of course, nothing can be ruled out.”

On October 17, the 11 th session of the Armenia-Russia Interparliamentary Cooperation Commission was held in Yerevan. Haykakan Zhamanak learned from Russian parliamentarians and reported that “On March 31, 2006 the Gazprom company and the Armenian government signed a contract for 25 years specifying their cooperation in implementing gas and energy projects within the territory of Armenia. The contract fixed a price of $110 per 1,000 cubic meters of Russian natural gas to be paid by Armenia from April 1, 2006 to January 1, 2009. It was also envisaged that ArmRosGazprom, cjsc would buy the 5 th energy unit of the Hrazdan TPS and the 40-kilometer section of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline . It was agreed to transfer the ownership of these installations to Russia by January 1, 2007.”

Some political and economic circles in Armenia insist that the energy security of our country is under serious threat. The reason is not that it is Russia that bought our energy resources but the fact that 90 percent of our energy infrastructure - including the systems of production, distribution and supply - belongs to one country, in this case, to Russia. In other words, Armenia is dependent on one center and there is no sense in talking about alternative energy sources anymore. The idea of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline is certainly depreciating since the pipeline could have to some extent secured not only Armenia's energy independence and security but also could have played a transit role for Georgia.

Thus, it can be said that the energy security of Armenia is in Moscow's hands since in one way or another almost the entire energy system of our country belongs to Russia. The only unit that is still Armenia's property, and provides for about 10 percent of our energy sources, is the Vorotan hydroelectric power plant. Though it operates at a good profit, it cannot be ruled out that it also might be bought by Russia.

However, last week the Armenian press and political circles were most concerned about statements made in Yerevan by Member of the Russian Parliament Konstantin Zatulin. Zatulin is a politician considered to be close to the Kremlin and his opinion is more or less regarded as the position of official Moscow. The parliamentarian first compared Armenia with the “cut Leopold” [a Russian cartoon character], and then declared in a tough tone that the time had come for Armenia to make a choice regarding Russian-Georgian relations. Or rather, the Russians want us to support them against the neighboring Georgia in the Russian-Georgian diplomatic war.

Armenia itself is a victim of the tense Russian-Georgian relations of the last few years. When Russia closes the frontier point of Upper Lars – virtually, the only land road connecting Armenia with Russia via territory of Georgia – under the pretext of reconstruction work, the blockade of our country becomes more complete. In other words, by blockading Georgia, Russia is also blockading Armenia, which is considered to be Russia's strategic partner.

Yerevan has little opportunity for choice, taking into account that it has no relations with two of its neighbors, Turkey and Azerbaijan, who continue their policy of “suffocating” Armenia through the blockades. And as if this is not enough, Russia, in essence, advises us to make a choice in the Russian-Georgian relations.

Political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan insists that Armenia has no legal obligations to express its position vis-à-vis Russia's relations with the United States, North Korea, Zimbabwe, or Georgia.

“Russia and Georgia are independent states; Armenia is Georgia's neighbor and, I would say, Yerevan has quite good relations with Tbilisi as well as with Russia. Armenia has no legal obligations to express its position vis-à-vis Russian-Georgian relations since Armenia takes no part in this conflict. It is possible that at some point Armenia may offer its mediation to overcome the Russian-Georgian crisis but not under the present circumstances when there is no such mediation and even if there were a need for a mediation they would get along without Armenia,” Iskandaryan says.

Moscow based political scientist Andranik Migranyan believes that the question is not put correctly. “Armenia has to have a pro-Armenian position, based on its national interests, but as far as I understand Armenia doesn't formulate its interests in a way to send a clear message to both Georgia and Russia that the Russian-Georgian conflict inflicts damage on Armenia. There is certain passivity in formulating the Armenian policy. I believe that political forces and the foreign ministry of Armenia think that if they are passive the storm will, perhaps, blow over and the issues will be settled by themselves. But that never happens in conflict situations,” Migranyan said.

It doesn't look as if there will be a breakthrough in Russian-Georgian relations in the near future. During the 11 th session of the Armenia-Russia Interparliamentary Cooperation Commission held in Yerevan, some of the Armenian parliamentarians expressed their concerns about the transport blockade of Georgia which inflicts damage on Armenia first of all.

“If you close Upper Lars you should tell us in advance to enable our exporters to find other markets. Of course, they appreciate our position. On the other hand, our colleagues say that they have lost all patience and are unable to remain reserved toward the Sahakashvili regime and not react with all their might,” Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Vahan Hovhanissyan said in a joint press conference with Nikolay Rizhkov.

According to Member of Parliament Tatul Manaseryan the closure of the Russian-Georgian border will cause serious damage to the economy of Armenia in the long term. “Georgia provides us with an outlet not only to Russia but also the CIS states and to Europe. In addition to the appreciated dram, when the volumes of export have decreased in Armenia, the blockade might have a catastrophic effect for the economy of our country,” he insisted.

Economics professor Andranik Tevanyan from the Armenian-Russian (Slavonic) University believes that it is necessary for Armenia to develop economic relations with Turkey without preconditions while acknowledging the historical realities – the fact of the Armenian genocide. “We should develop economic relations with Turkey, make use of the regional communication opportunities. Alternative communications are necessary for Armenia,” he said. Expert on economic and Diaspora related issues from the Armenian Center of Strategic and National Studies Hovsep Khurshudyan considers the worsening of Russian-Georgian relations undesirable first of all because it involves a number of threats to Armenia.

“The first relates to Javakhk; it is evident that some external forces taking advantage of the unbalanced policy of the current Georgian authorities toward national minorities, including Armenians, will try to inveigle the Javakhk Armenians into some actions against Georgia. And any aggravation of the situation in Javakhk is not only a threat to the Javakhk Armenians but also to the security of Armenia and might lead to a destabilization of the situation in the entire region,” he said.

The other threat is the resumption of the Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetian conflicts. “A possible success in resolving these problems through military means might create a negative precedent for the Karabakh conflict. And finally, under the conditions of the present diplomatic weakness of Armenia, the Russian-Georgian conflict will confine the foreign policy flexibility of Yerevan even more and will intensify the pressure on Yerevan to make a choice between Russia and the West – a choice that under the present conditions might not be based on the national interests of Armenia but on those of the governing clans,” he says.

We remind you that the Russians closed the Upper Lars border point on July 7, 2006 under the pretext of carrying out reconstruction work. And lately the incidences of Armenian citizens being deported from Russia have become more frequent. Of course, the blockade doesn't prevent this, since those Armenians who try to make living bread in Russia are sent home by air.

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