An Interview with Jafar Guliev

What position does the Karabakh conflict occupy in respect to its impact on Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani nation, and society?

From the start this conflict, which was initiated by Armenians, was very significant for us, and was the most urgent and painful issue. Unfortunately, we talk about that in the past tense, because currently the issue is slowly losing urgency and influence on society and on people's lives, and interest in it is vanishing.

This is largely connected with the fact that the peace process has been prolonged for too long, that there are no real changes, and that society is tired of this painful waiting and uncertain situation. The governments of both Azerbaijan and Armenia share the blame for the current situation. In our case, ever since Heydar Aliev ruled the country, the government privatized the right to solve the issue, forcing out society and NGOs. This is largely caused by the fact that a totalitarian dictatorship has taken shape in Azerbaijan. And today we have to acknowledge that the Kharabakh conflict does not have a big influence in the life of Azerbaijani society.

What have been the economic, human, and other losses and gains of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict?

It's necessary to say that after the Karabakh conflict changed from war to the current state of “neither war nor peace” the number of casualties has dropped significantly. But even today there are some casualties. We are all well aware of cross-border shooting incidents, as a result of which not only soldiers but also civilian lives are lost.

Regarding economic losses, these are more evident. The country has lost a significant part of its territory, so it's not possible to cultivate that territory. Furthermore, refugees and internally displaces people have become a heavy burden on the Azerbaijani economy. Add to that other major expenses which Azerbaijan has to pay on a regular basis. Specifically, in my opinion, excessively big expenditures to maintain the army and increase its fighting ability.

At the same time, in recent years, Azerbaijan's government and official propaganda are trying to focus more attention not on the losses our country has suffered in the conflict, but on the economy's intensive development. They release data that claim Azerbaijan is the leading economy in the region. I don't think this is a correct path.

What is the relation of the societies of our countries towards the established status quo? Whose side is time on in the Karabakh conflict?

The current situation in the peace process, and the overall situation surrounding the conflict are not good for our society, Azerbaijan's citizens. As a result of our government's forcing the society out of the peace process, the population has stopped caring about the issue. Furthermore, society is tired of the absence of any real changes in the peace process.

Regarding the sentiment, that tomorrow it will be possible to do what was not possible today or in the past, national propaganda, several independent experts, and some part of Azerbaijani population still believe that time is on Azerbaijan's side. Their argument is that Azerbaijan's economic supremacy over Armenia will result in decisive military supremacy as well and that as a result, the lost territories will be returned. I am not questioning the fact of Azerbaijan's economic supremacy over Armenia, but it should not be directly connected to the Kharabakh issue.

In my opinion, the time works for those who utilize it to really strengthen their own position. Unfortunately, we see that many processes in Azerbaijan are just for show. In the last ten years we haven't used our oil and geopolitical leverage, our economic supremacy against Armenia in order to strengthen our position in the negotiations. What's the guarantee that we will be able to utilize this leverage in the future? I believe that if in the negative trends continue in the country's economic and political life, then time won't work in Azerbaijan's favor. Just the opposite, time will work against those real factors that Azerbaijan failed to use in order to solve the Kharabakh issue in its favor.

What predominates in the perceptions that the Azerbaijani and Armenian societies have of each other societies —myths, prejudices, or judgments based on reality? Do Azerbaijanis and Armenians know each other?

Based on my relations with Armenian experts and journalists I would say there are lots of myths and stereotypes, and there is little real or adequate information. In addition to the existing stereotypes and enemy aura, which have clouded relations between Armenians and Azerbaijanis ever since the conflict broke out, there is little willingness to judge each other on a case-by-case basis. So any relations, even amongst the most apolitical representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan, are under the constant pressure of preformed and often subjective stereotypes. In this area people diplomacy could possibly help, but there is none. Any awkward attempts to establish such relations are stopped both in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Can there be a solution to the Karabakh conflict that will satisfy both the Armenian and the Azerbaijani societies?

I don't think so. Today, both the Armenian and Azerbaijani societies are not ready to for substantial compromises. They even reject the latest proposal by the OSCE Minsk group. Furthermore, at least on the Azerbaijani side the number of potential compromises has been exhausted. So I don't think that in the near future there will be a peace proposal that would satisfy both the Azerbaijani and Armenian societies.

Aksper Hasanov