Hetq interviews France-based journalist and Eastern Studies specialist Tigran Yegavyan

Mr. Yegavyan, during the ongoing fighting, France, at the presidential level, was the first to criticize Azerbaijan and Turkey for carrying out aggression against Artsakh. Macron also spoke about Islamists being sent to Azerbaijan via Turkey. According to Macron, Turkey has crossed the red line and NATO should discuss its behavior. Did you expect France did adopt such a position? What influence can France have on curbing Turkey's imperialist aspirations and fighting the terrorists it sponsors?

It should be noted that this conflict taking place in the South Caucasus is considered as part of a wider geopolitical game.

French President Macron is aware that Erdogan poses a global threat, especially in the Mediterranean, the Middle East and Eastern Europe. But at the same time, you should keep in mind that the collision that took place not far from the Libyan coast, when the French ship came under Turkish fire, was a big shock for the French.

Macron immediately tried to petition NATO for support, but was disappointed by their contradiction, that is, NATO did not support France, but tried to gain time, especially Germany, which has great interests with Turkey, hindered France. This is also the reason why this policy of Libya, Cyprus and the Aegean Sea gave France an opportunity to get closer to Athens and Nicosia.

I think Macron does not have a much influence in NATO and from that point of view French diplomacy is a bit insular. Therefore, we must be careful in this matter and study the capability of France.

Returning to Macron's recent statements, they have a great symbolic role, and this is the first time that such statements are made by a UN member state. I am convinced that when Macron used the word Karabakh as a country, it was a message to the Turks and Azeris. That’s to say France has the opportunity to put pressure on them, by threatening to recognize the independence of Nagorno Karabakh.

France is a nuclear superpower, which has a great influence, particularly in the EU. What tangible effect can France have on the position of the international community?

I think I touched upon this question a little already. As I said, France is a bit isolated from the EU and NATO, but it is trying to defend world values. Given the US presidential campaign and that country’s retreat from the global stage, France is using this opportunity to be more active diplomatically.

I think Macron has a permanent connection with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Foreign Minister Lavrov. These two sides seem to be trying to divide their roles. This is also an opportunity for France to take revenge on Turkey. When France tried to have international influence after the explosion in Lebanon this August, the influence of Turkey was already there.

French public and political figures have started collecting signatures in support of Artsakh. They demanded that France reconsider its position as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. Do you think it is possible that France do more in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, leaving aside the neutrality expected from the co-chair country?

We must separate the two realities.

France isn’t inclined to change the status quo and follows all this carefully. France considers Armenia a friendly country, considering the ties of the diaspora, the whole history with the Armenians.

But the trade ties are very weak. France, however, closely cooperates with Azerbaijan in different spheres. Under former French President François Hollande, French companies were sold to the Azerbaijanis, so France pursues a balanced policy.

As for the position and situation of the OSCE Minsk Group, France realizes that it has weakened and there is a need for change, but since Turkey has been active, this diplomatic process seems to have frozen.

At present, France has an interest in acting as a mediator, but at the same time it must be taken into account that it does not pursue private interests in the Caucasus region, as traditional French influence has been in Africa or other French-speaking countries. That is why we must approach this issue with caution and understand that France is trying to show balance and neutrality.

As for the collection of signatures, this step was of symbolic importance, because it is the first time that French-Armenian organizations and also the ARF’s Armenian National Committee were able to collect so many signatures.

It is direct proof that the French people and French public opinion sincerely express their support and assistance to the Armenian people, because they know who Erdogan is and they understand that this conflict is not taking place in isolation but is part of a much larger game.

At the same time, it must be noted that France is not now ready to recognize NKR independence.

You said that this conflict is part of a largergame. Will you elaborate?

Undoubtedly, the Artsakh conflict is a part of a big regional game in which Turkey managed to profit in the confrontation with Russia.

According to the French point of view, Erdogan is a real threat. People also do not understand the cowardice of Europe, which does not dare to offend Turkey. Of course, there is the issue of immigrants, which prevents us from doing more. But it should also be remembered that the European Union continues to send large sums of money to Turkey within the framework of its membership program.