Alec Yenikomshian

(Pt. 3 of five-part series entitled Armenia's Last Chance to Ensure Its Survival)

In parallel with ensuring the consolidation of its sovereignty over the east-west road passing through Meghri, Armenia must immediately develop and implement a comprehensive program ensuring its resilience.

This program proposes a survival doctrine built on five integrated pillars:

1. Asymmetric Security and Defense: Making invasion prohibitively expensive.
2. Multifaceted Diplomacy: Making Armenia a demanded and even indispensable entity for numerous powers.
3. Resilient Economy and Infrastructure: Ensuring national sovereignty and war sustainability.
4. Healing of Society and the State System.
5. Unification of the Homeland and the Diaspora into a single security ecosystem.

some sections of this program have been developed with the assistance of artificial intelligence.

I. Security and Defense

1. General Description

Armenia cannot survive as a traditional state competing symmetrically with its enemies. It can only survive as a fortified micro-state, armed with asymmetric tools, preserved by its diaspora, and protected by multipolar alliances.

The roadmap presented here offers a path from the current extreme vulnerability towards long-term deterrence and sovereignty.

2. Core Doctrinal Principles

• Deterrence by Denial – Making the occupation of Armenian territories prohibitively expensive.
• Syunik as a Fortress – Dissuading the adversary from the temptation to seize Syunik by guaranteeing devastating losses.
• Asymmetric Strike Capability – Compensating for traditional shortcomings with high technological precision.
• Whole-of-Nation Engagement: Every citizen and diaspora member has their contribution to security.

3. Operational Concepts (Not all details are listed)

• Adapting the structure of the Armed Forces to the requirements of asymmetric warfare, geographical terrain, and assessment of the adversary's capabilities.
• Transforming the borders in Syunik and with Azerbaijan into a fortress (bunkers, tunnels, observation posts, anti-UAV (drone) defenses, permanent special forces units).
• Acquisition of asymmetric deterrence means: armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs/drones), long-range missiles and artillery, anti-tank missiles, electronic and cyber warfare tools.
• Border fortification: Construction of permanent defensive structures and shelters protected from unmanned aerial vehicles (drones).
• Construction of civilian shelters.
• Development of a domestic defense industry.
• Development of civil-military integration programs for rapid mobilization.
• Civil-military fusion - Preparing for the military repurposing of civilian factories during crises.
• Training for special forces units and civilian reserve subunits.
• Incorporation of civil defense into national education and infrastructure planning.
• Application of cyber and electronic warfare capabilities.
• Conducting military exercises and crisis simulation drills.
• Pre-positioning of strategic reserves: food, water, energy, ammunition.
• Creation of a Diaspora Defense Foundation (with transparent oversight).
• Integration of Diaspora IT and engineering networks into defense research and development.
• Formation/development of a system for the Diaspora for arms acquisition, political lobbying, and intelligence activities.
• Development of crisis response protocols for "black swan" scenarios.
• Organization of joint exercises with existing or potential allies, which will be supplemented by cooperation with other partners.
• Signing security memoranda with allies (covering armaments, exercises, and political coverage).

II.Diplomacy and Foreign Relations

1. General Description

Strong multilateral alliances and the circumstance of being in demand significantly increase the probability of becoming a sovereign micro-state.

2. Doctrinal Principles

• Exclusion of a non-sovereign "corridor".
• Armenia's "brand": Neutral, but an irreplaceable transit hub and technological center in the region.
• Armenia as an anchor in North-South (India-Iran-Armenia-Georgia) corridor projects.

3. Operational Concepts

• Inclusion of Syunik as a red line in all international negotiations.
• Establishment and expansion of bilateral and mini-lateral agreements (e.g., Armenia-India-Iran, Armenia-France-Greece).
• Expansion of partnership relations with the US and the EU.
• Maintenance of flexible cooperation with Russia, while simultaneously avoiding excessive dependence.
• Expansion of partnership relations with China and Middle Eastern countries.
• Mobilization of Diaspora lobbying, aligned with Armenia's diplomacy, and to prevent possible Western indifference during sensitive phases.

III. Resilient Economy and Infrastructure

1. Doctrinal Principles

• A small, but resilient economy.
• Economic resilience: Prioritizing the financing of infrastructure based on a military dual-use logic.
• Technology-driven growth.

2. Operational Concepts

• Priority to dual-use infrastructure (civilian + military): roads, tunnels, energy grids, IT.
• Socio-economic strengthening of Syunik first and foremost, as well as other border regions, for population resilience and demographic empowerment.
• Expansion of the North-South corridor, ensuring quality connections with Iran and Georgia.
• Promotion of high-tech sectors (UAVs/drones, cyber technology, biotechnology, IT, Artificial Intelligence) as an overarching strategic goal.
• Strengthening and development of the mentioned sectors, also as drivers of civil-military fusion.
• Further development and diversification of internal energy independence: Expand cooperation in solar, hydroelectric, and nuclear energy.
• Utilization of foreign and diaspora investments and aid in programs related to defense industrialization.
• Development and implementation of diaspora investment programs targeted at broadly strategic sectors.   
•                                                                                                                                    IV. Healing of Society, the Governance System, and State-Society Relations  

1. General Description

• No strategy aimed at achieving resilience, and particularly resistance to Pan-Turkism, can be fully implemented (even if implemented, their utility curve will be low) if an unhealthy, pathological atmosphere prevails in Armenia regarding societal, governance, and state-society relations. The prerequisite for achieving resilience in all areas is the existence of a healthy society and state system, and harmony between the two.
• A healthy society presupposes a corresponding level of consciousness, values, and morality among its constituent layers and members. A healthy state and governance system presupposes the same, and the development and application of policy based on this foundation.

2. Operational Concepts - Society

• Deep awareness of the existence of the Pan-Turkist program.
• Focus on the question of "what to do?" even while holding uncompromising positions towards previous and/or current authorities, albeit without renouncing those positions.
• Anchoring the conviction to acquire resilience against the Pan-Turkist program.
• Acquisition of minimal recognition of the current geopolitical reality, the multifaceted crises of the world system, and their trends.
• Acquisition of critical thinking.
• Development of technological knowledge.
• Striving to achieve harmonious intra-societal and interpersonal relations.
• Acquisition of the consciousness to envision personal well-being not in opposition to others and the community, but in harmony with them.
• Adoption of a philosophy of life based on moderation; rejection of decadence.

3. Operational Concepts - Governance System

Some of the above points addressed to society may give the impression of parochial admonitions. But they are necessary conditions for ensuring a healthy, harmonious, and strong society and state. The adoption of these by members of society is largely conditioned by the adoption and application of these same convictions and values by those in power and the middle echelons of the governance system.

• Adoption and application of the aforementioned norms and values first and foremost by the high and middle echelons of power.
• Prevention of the creation of artificial contradictions between certain strata of power and society, as well as within society itself; mitigation of substantive contradictions.
• Application of socio-economic, legal, and educational policies striving for social justice, ensuring a dignified life, eliminating excessively large disparities in property and income, achieving genuine legal justice, and providing multifaceted, modern education and healthy upbringing.
• Elimination of consciously created contradictions with the Diaspora Armenians, albeit with some specific strata; involvement of the Diaspora as a full participant in programs aimed at achieving the homeland's resilience.

In addition:

• Consolidation and mobilization of society.
• Encouragement of population resilience; instilling self-confidence.
• Fight against disinformation and defeatism through strategic communication units.
• Inclusion of STEAM and defensive technologies in the mandatory educational curriculum.

(STEAM: science, technology, engineering, arts-humanities, mathematics.

STEAM is a philosophy of education for teaching science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, as well as arts and humanities, as interconnected and integrated subjects through practical projects, aiming to prepare students to become the new generation of innovators and critical thinkers.)

• Inclusion of civil defense courses in education.
• Promotion of birth rates.                                                                                                                                                                                                       V. Diaspora - Equal Participant, Not Merely Auxiliary

1. Doctrinal Principles

• Unification of the Homeland and the Diaspora into a single security ecosystem.
• The Diaspora (and internal mobilization) as force multipliers in all strategic areas and all scenarios.

2. Operational Concepts

• Healing relations with the Diaspora - Historical sensitivities should not be subject to oblivion, disdain, or ridicule, but both Armenia and the Diaspora must be jointly guided by the deep awareness that under today's conditions, the future of the entire Armenian nation depends on solving the problem of guaranteeing the continuous existence of the present-day Armenia, which is under existential threat. All issues that could hinder the solution to this primary problem should not find a place on the current agenda; they can be revived after the positive resolution of the primary issue.
• Institutionalization of Diaspora involvement in national projects (financial, technological, defense-related, advisory).
• Creation of a Homeland-Diaspora security pact mechanism.
• Institutionalization of a Diaspora Service Corps: 1-2 years of service in Armenia for Diaspora youth.
• Promotion of repatriation; creation of conditions for full integration in Armenia.

3. Sectoral Participation (Already mentioned in individual sector sections)

• Creation of a Diaspora Defense Foundation (with transparent oversight).
• Integration of Diaspora IT and engineering networks into defense research and development.
• Formation/development of a system for the Diaspora for arms acquisition, political lobbying, and intelligence activities.
• Mobilization of Diaspora lobbying, aligned with Armenia's diplomacy, and to prevent possible Western indifference during sensitive phases.
• Utilization of Diaspora investments and aid in programs related to defense industrialization.
• Development and implementation of Diaspora investment programs targeted at broadly strategic sectors.

VI.Actionable Checklists

Long-term resilience requires continuous monitoring, rapid response capability, and the implementation of flexible strategies.

• Create a National Survival Council (government + military + diaspora representatives).
• Incorporate the REI-FAD methodology into policy decision-making.
• Conduct annual strategic reviews with multipolar allies.
• Develop a scenarios tree and risk matrix that are updated every year.
• Prepare alternative transit routes in case of the imposition of a corridor.
• Develop rapid response action plans anticipating political, military, and economic shocks.
• The roadmap is dynamic. Constant review, adaptability, and scenario-based planning are mandatory.

VII. Training Program for Decision-Makers

Strategic Resilience for Armenia's Next Generation of Leaders.

(The program must be developed, expanded, and refined by experts from Armenia, the Diaspora, and, if necessary, foreign specialists)

Goal: To equip Armenia's decision-makers with the necessary knowledge, skills, and strategic mindset.

Program

1. Understand the current environment of the global system, its crises, and trends.
2. Understand the current geopolitical environment and trends at the global level.
3. Understand the essence of the Pan-Turkist program and the developing geopolitical environment of the South Caucasus.
4. Apply strategies of asymmetric defense and national resilience.
5. Learn to navigate a multipolar diplomatic environment while protecting sovereignty.
6. Include civil society and the diaspora in national security strategy.

Learning Outcomes

Upon completion, participants will be able to:

• Assess Pan-Turkic threats and predict the adversary's moves.
• Develop policy for survival under asymmetric conditions.
• Effectively coordinate national and diaspora resources.
• Apply war gaming and scenario planning to prepare for "black swan" events.
• Translate strategy into operational, diplomatic, and economic actions.

Program Outcomes

By the end of the program:

• Leaders will be able to make informed strategic decisions under conditions of extreme uncertainty.
• The military and civilian sectors will be harmonized regarding doctrine and response.
• Armenia will have a prepared cadre of decision-makers ready to activate the survival doctrine.

General Conclusion

Armenia's path to survival is narrow, but real. It depends first and foremost on preventing a non-sovereign corridor through Syunik. The coming five and ten years are decisive. If Armenia prevents the creation of the corridor and strengthens its sovereignty through asymmetric tools, multilateral alliances, and the judicious fusion of all possibilities of the state and the nation, then it can transition from an existential crisis to the status of a sovereign micro-state.

Failure to act immediately threatens the irreversible danger of the loss of statehood and the permanent existence of the Armenian nation in its homeland.