Part I

Part II: Threat of Unemployment

What is a “single candidate representing both the authorities and the opposition”? One must examine the Armenian political field closely to understand this correctly. It is not difficult to notice that there is a lack of balance there. It is similar to the landscape atNorthern Avenue– one on side there are huge buildings rising majestically high, while the other side has ruins that have yet to be cleared up, but where there once was life.

After the elections in May, many of the political players from the last 10 years of Armenian politics were left out of the game. It's true, they had gotten used to playing and failing, but they were not ready to be completely rid of their right to participate. And now, Artashes Geghamyan for example, who had the reputation of a professional oppositionist, is forced to look for a new job, because both participating and not participating in the presidential elections will leave him unemployed.

By being a part of the search for a single unifying candidate, he does not have the illusions that that title will be given to him. He does not expect this to happen for a number of reasons. The first is that he understands that failing to secure the minimum percentage of votes in the parliamentary elections has rid him of his position as opposition frontrunner (let us recall that last time he was not in an alliance, but he made it to Parliament). Secondly, he knows that the discussions initiated by Ashot Manucharyan are usually destructive and fruitless. Thirdly, Paruyr Hayrikyan, a co-author of the initiative, wanted to put Vazgen Manukyan in his place from day one, by saying that he was the only possible unifying candidate while he was still alive. But Geghamyan is a part of these discussions, not because he aims to wrest power, but because they are an attempt by him to stay in politics.

Having understood all this, he has made a proposal that is in essence a compromise and aims at lengthening the life of the opposition. When he says “a candidate unifying the authorities and the opposition” everyone understands that it is not going to be him, Stepan Demirchyan, Arthur Baghdasaryan, Vazgen Manukyan or Paruyr Hayrikyan (I apologize if I forgot to mention anyone here). The unifying candidate is going to be one person who can ensure the smooth replication of Robert Kocharyan. That man, at least for now, can only be Serzh Sargsyan.

Thus, if the government agrees to his proposal, which will in effect legitimize the next President, the opposition would receive official status. That, of course, does not mean that Artashes Geghamyan would become, say, the Mayor of Yerevan. But opposition candidates will be allowed to gain positions in some small towns, villages and regions in the country. Some oppositionists may be given positions in ministries and other departments, and most will be included in various committees and would be invited to parliamentary hearings. This would allow the preservation of political jobs within the opposition and would help retain at least a small part of the member of each party.

Will the authorities understand Geghamyan's proposal? I think they will and there answer could be quite brief – “Sure, why not?” – especially as Serzh Sargsyan rejected the idea of “strengthening through division” before the parliamentary elections and has not come up with anything new since then.

The authorities and the opposition do not have any marked ideological differences. The authorities and the opposition do not have electoral masses. The authorities have administrative resources which they can use to achieve their tasks. Geghamyan's proposal would be useful to the authorities, because it means an election largely without the participation of an electorate. So, the authorities and the opposition would agree that Serzh Sarsgyan is “big daddy” (may God grant sociologist Aharon Adibekyan a long life), the administrative authorities do their work in their highly skilled manner, the President is elected and the opposition congratulates him. AndArmeniacan present to the world a President who inspires confidence.

Will the opposition understand Geghamyan's proposal? Theoretically yes, but in practice a lot of problems will come up linked with the level of employment arranged for each party. Everyone will try to find out which spot under the sun has been allocated to them. Some people without realistic views will refuse to participate, will leave and try to cling to the Dashnaktsutyun , giving the image of opposition to a party that has been in government for the past ten years. Thus, this project may fail as well, but the process of replication will remain on the cards.

The situation may change radically with the candidacy of Levon Ter-Petrosyan - which, however, is not likely because those who wish to see the return of the founding President of Armenia use a racehorse mindset, relying on the most likely candidate to win. So far none of those who spoke of his possible return have analyzed the illusion of his departure from politics and the necessity of his return. Those who are inviting the likely winner Levon Ter-Petrosyan to the arena today are going to be his sworn political enemies tomorrow.

For the current opposition, the return of Ter-Petrosyan is less desirable than the replication of Robert Kocharyan, because the reestablishment of the first President will herald a new era in the political history of the current where they will simply have nothing to do. Ter-Petrosyan's opposition will be different. But they still have the hope of getting part–time jobs if Serzh Sargsyan is elected.