Kiro Manoyan, who heads the ARF Political Affairs Bureau in Yerevan, today stated that any talk regarding a possible settlement of the Karabakh conflict would be pure speculation since there are no specific indications as to what developments to expect in the near furure.

"The only thing that is clear is that the Minsk Group Co-Chairs are pulling out all stops to reach an agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on so-called "fundamental principles" by October 14. But the final draft of these principles will only be ready for submittal to the parties involved by the end of September. The fact that official Baku has not once stated that it would abide by the will of the people if it chose to remain outside the territorial jurisdiction of Azerbaijan, is enough basis to declare that the sides will not agree on these fundamental principles. I'd say that neither side wishes to say 'yes' to the principles but that neither side wants to be the first to say 'no'. October 14 is the date of the next football match between the national teams of Armenia and Turkey, scheduled to take place in Turkey. Mr. Manoyan believes that the mediators are trying to satisfy Turkey's precondition that it will not normalize relations with Yerevan until a deal is reached on Karabakh. The ARF official stated that Ankara effectively froze any progress on normalizing relations with Yerevan after the April 22 "Joint Statement". "We can expect a fairly heated political atmosphere in the coming weeks. In the end, Yerevan must formulate a final position regarding the fundamental principles. I think that the sides will not come to an agreement by October 14. However, we must wait and see who will be the first to say 'no'," Mr. Manoyan said. Mr. Manoyan added that that he finds it realistic for Armenia to declare that it is Turkey that has scuttled the talks by placing this Karabakh precondition and that Ankara has altered the rules in mid-stream. "Armenia must declare this to be the case because it is equally important for Turkey to show the world that there is a process underway, that it is talking to Armenia and that there is no need for others to intervene. Armenia must declare that this is not the case," he said, adding that he didn't think President Sargsyan would make the trip to Turkey in October. Regarding the recent statement by U.S. Minsk Group Co-Chair Matthew Bryza that the bargaining position of Armenia was stronger ten years ago, Mr. Manoyan commented that Bryza often makes false statements in an effort to impact on Armenian politics. "I'd agree that Bryza is a skilled diplomat but his statement is incorrect. There is a clause in these principle that didn't exist back when Levon Ter-Petrosyan was president; namely that the final status of Karabakh will be based on the will of the people," he concluded.