“Whether we like it or not, there exists a geographical as well as an historical reality. Armenia is our northeastern neighbor and we’ve shared a centuries-old history with the Armenian people and cultural cooperation.” writes Yusef Canli in the Turkish Daily News. Noting that the normalization of Armenia-Turkish relations flows from the interests of the two sides he adds, “How can Turkey be a regional power if it continues to have problems with other countries in the region. How can Turkey, while attempting to play a constructive role in the Middle East, in the Georgian-Russian crisis..., continue to deride the necessity to normalize relations with its neighbors.”

Recent developments show that today Ankara is much more interested in normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations. As Turkish analysts point out, political realities emerging in the region demand this to be so. According to Turkish analyst Barchin Yinanchi, it seems that Turkish decision-makers have concluded that Armenia’s isolation from regional cooperative projects as a policy of exclusion has “thrown Armenia into the hands of the Russians”. The same analyst goes on to say that, “In the context of recent developments Turkey is inclined to avert a polarization where you have Russia and Armenia, on the one hand, and Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, on the other.”

Oral Chalishlar writes, “Turkey, in order to improve its influence in the Caucasus envisages to exercise a more dynamic foreign policy. One of the main pillars for such a political course on the part of Turkey is to have better relations with Armenia, given that Turkey has cordial relations with Azerbaijan and Georgia in the same region. Chalishlar believes that even though it appears that Armenian-Turkish relations are in a dead-end due to debate regarding the genocide, it would be more correct to state that the real problem is the tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the issue of Karabakh.

In conjunction with all this, however, there are political forces in the countries of the region that come out in opposition to any possible normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Deniz Baykal, a Turkish politician and longtime leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Devlet Bahceli, leader of the National Movement Party (MHP) came out with remarks critical of Gul’s visit to Armenia. According to the Turkish press, representatives of Turkey’s governing  Justice and Development Party (AKP) were forced to declare as void their plans to accompany the Turkish President to the football match in order that the opposition not use it as a lever to criticize the government.

Those criticizing Gul’s visit to Yerevan also included Akif Nagi, Chairman of the Karabakh Liberation Organization and the Musavat Party, both in Azerbaijan.

In Armenia, a more constructive approach was displayed regarding this issue. Armenian National Congress leader, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, once again welcomed the step to invite Gul to Armenia. While it is true that the Armenian Revolutionary Federation reaffirmed its intent to meet Gul at the airport with protests, nevertheless they it noted that the protests would be “civilized”. However, the primary question of concern to all in Turkey, Armenia and in Azerbaijan is whether Gul’s trip to Armenia will lead to any positive movement in the process of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations. The initial step that can be taken in the direction of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations would be the opening of the 325 kilometer Armenia-Turkish border and the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations. In this matter the opinions of various political forces in Armenia converge. That’s to say that Armenia is ready to establish normal relations with Turkey without preconditions. Today, the possibility of opening the Armenian-Turkish border appears more possible than ever, particularly in the context of regional processes occurring in the recent period. The prospect of opening the Armenian-Turkish border, however, isn’t that well received in neighboring Azerbaijan. Thus, in the opinion of Anar Mamedkhanov, a Deputy in the Azeri Parliament, only Armenia will benefit from the opening of the border given that “closed borders” is the only card Turkey and Azerbaijan have to play in the matter of the “occupied territories and to counter the Armenian cards putting pressure on Turkey when it comes to the ‘alleged genocide’ issue” and today “Turkey can give those cards to Armenia with its own hands.”

The conviction of the Musavat Party is that in the situation when Russia’s aggression towards Georgia further exacerbated the virtual blockade of Armenia, the gestures made by Turkey to Armenia as well as the visit at a top governmental level, will negatively impact the settling of the Karabakh conflict.

Political scientist Leila Aliyevan, despite expresing her apprehension regarding the possible opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, nevertheless stresses that the beginning of dialogue between Ankara and Yerevan will directly impact on the strengthening of Turkey’s influence in the South Caucasus which in turn would mean the gradual restriction of Russia’s influence on Armenia. The political scientist conjectures that after this Armenia would be more compromising regarding the Karabakh conflict settlement issue. On the other hand, though, political scientist Hekmet Hajizadeh believes that, when compared to Russia, Turkey doesn’t have the potential in order to pull Armenia to its side. This means that Azerbaijan should not entertain any hope at all that Armenians will adopt a constructive stance towards the Karabakh question.

Georgi Vanyan, Chairman of the Caucasus Center of Peace-Making Initiatives, in an interview given to “Day.az” expresses the opinion that being present at the football match in Yerevan is conditioned on the convergence of Turkish and Russian interests on certain points and that in this there is no Armenia, per say, nor a component of Armenian-Turkish relations. Mr. Vanyan concludes that, “Developments taking place can in no way impact on Azeri-Turkish relations.”

Turkish specialist Grigor Harutyunyan, a former advisor of the Armenian delegation to The Black Sea Economic Cooperation organization (BSEC), the initiatives taken by Turkey to be included in regional porocesses is conditioned not only by recent regional developments, but on the fact that today the governing Justice and Development Party in Turkey is attempting to exercise a political policy independent of external forces, especially the United States. According to the expert, the governing party sees Turkey as being a regional super power. This is evidenced by Ankara’s attempts, particularly in recent years,  to assume the role of mediator in the process of peacefully resolving existing regional conflicts, by co-operating with Iran in the gas sector despite the U.S. imposed embargo. Mr. Harutyunyan views the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border in the near future to be quite realistic. The specialist singles out those advantages that would accrue to Armenia if the border were to open. First and foremost, Turkey could become an alternate route for Armenia, especially if we take into account how vulnerable Georgia is as a transit route for Armenia. The other advantage, in his view, would be a fall in prices given that according to some estimates prices of goods entering Armenia via Georgia increase buy some 40%. Finally, the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border would serve as a good opportunity to develop links with Turkey and to deepen those links in the future.

“In the event that the border is opened the unavoidable issue regarding consulates will soon be raised and the necessity of opening a consulate will be felt. It can’t be ruled out that afterwards diplomatic relations between the two nations will be established. Of course, the opening of the border will benefit the development of political relations.” notes Mr. Harutyunyan. As for a negative consequence, “there is also a justified fear that the Armenian economy will be threatened and sublimated to a possible Turkish economic expansion.” Mr. Harutyunyan does not agree with the widespread notion that Armenia represents nothing of importance for Turkey and that it has nothing to offer Ankara. According to him, Turkey today faces an energy shortage and that Armenia can sell energy to Turkey. At a very minimum, according to Mr. Harutyunyan, Armenia can also serve as a transit route for Turkey.

It is Mr. Harutyunyan’s belief that Turkey’s relations with Azerbaijan should not hinder its establishing relations with Armenia as well. “If Turkey should pull back from cooperating with Armenia because of Azerbaijan then Armenia’s participation in the Caucasus Peace and Cooperation Platform becomes redundant given that it would assume a purely formal nature given that it would contradict the objectives and issues of this Turkish-sponsored project. In the event of the Platform’s formulation, the specialist considers Armenian-Turkish cooperation in a variety of fields to be realistic.

However, he sees the issue of Armenian0Azeri cooperation to be more problematic given that the issue of defining the status of Karabakh will come up within the parameters of that cooperation. In the estimation of Mr. Harutyunyan what’s important vis-a-vis Armenian-Turkish relations is moving that first stone. “It’s important to make contact. All other problems will gradually find their own solutions. It is only necessary that the two sides take reciprocal steps, without considering them to be gestures of goodwill.”