In the matter of Tigran Torosyan officially announcing his resignation for the second time, there can be no doubt that newly-elected Deputy Hovik Abrahamyan, despite his low popularity and practically non-existent knowledge of parliamentary procedure, will become the next President of the National Assembly. In this regards however two questions remain unanswered. First, why has this happened and why in such a manner? Second, what consequences will it have on political-social processes?

The Show was Necessary to Increase the Pressure

It is evident that everything was done to resolve the matter of Tigran Torosyan’s departure in a public manner. The displayed continuity and stubbornness in the matter reached such proportions that it became a personal affront to Mr. Torosyan.

First, the road leading to the National Assembly was cleared of all real and potential obstacles for Mr. Abrahamyan. From the start that process was directed with an active outflow of information regarding his intent to sit in the chair of the National Assembly President. That all this was being done to the consternation of Tigran Torosyan was evidenced by his nervous posturing during an interview he gave on the matter some two months ago.

All this might have been stomached at the time if there wasn’t the most final and lethal blow - The Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), of which Tigran Torosyan was a founding member and to which he dedicated almost all his waking hours, was directly declaring that his continued chairing of the National Assembly Presidency was viewed to be inappropriate.

Furthermore, no explanation or basis for such a declaration was given. Most injurious was that Mr. Torosyan hadn’t occupied the position for a mere 1-2 years. Thus, what’s surprising is that in all the time in office neither Mr. Torosyan’s affiliated party or any other political force within the ruling regime saw fit to utter a sound about the inappropriateness of his governance. In other words, it wasn’t a question of a long-simmering dissatisfaction coming to a head.

In this sense, the decision taken by Tigran Torosyan to leave the RPA grouping and the party in general, which, by the way, was the only honorable step to take, was essentially personally motivated. In effect, had he not taken that extreme step and instead had adopted that same position of accommodation which defined his party colleagues, he would have lost all his authority and wound up a “political corpse”.

It is apparent from all this that the operation “Hovik Abrahamyan for National Assembly President” was realized in such a way - by exerting such overwhelming pressure on Tigran Torosyan that he’d be left with no maneuvering space. The imperative nature of solving the problem could only have had two possible outcomes.

Either, by giving in to the pressure Tigran Torosyan would lay down his weapons and voluntarily depart the scene or that he’d reconcile with the party, or more correctly with their decision about the Assembly President, and forfeiting his status as the number two figure in Armenia turn into a rank and file party member.

What unfolded on September 19th, when an extraordinary session of the National Assembly was convened without any serious matters on the agenda, showed that the ploy was to be executed on Torosyan’s voluntary resignation statement, which is what occurred. Torosyan, of course, could have made no statement at all. This would have allowed his own party to begin Presidential dismissal proceedings in the National Assembly.

Aside from some moral dividends, Torosyan would have gotten nothing from such a move. In this way Torosyan essentially showed that he was accepting his defeat given that he accepted the fact that he stood alone in front of the party and the entire apparatus of the regime. However, by doing so he rendered a great service to his party colleagues and particularly his ideological allies - he basically freed them from the unenviable task of looking him in the eye and voting against him.

Objective #1 - Create New Inner-Party Relations

This resignation had a pronounced political sub-context that can’t be overlooked. By resigning from the post of National Assembly President it became clear that the Republican Party of Armenia(RPA) was being subject to serious  internal qualitative and quantitative changes.

These were the changes that began at the end of March, 2007; in other words after the untimely passing of Andranik Margaryan , the former leader of the party, and when Serzh Sargsyan became the de jure and de facto leader of the RPA and when he filled the ranks of the party with individuals having no connection with it. The tactical move by Antranik Margaryan to share the running of the party with Serzh Sargsyan wasn’t understood by his ideological cohorts standing at the roots of the party. This was capitalized upon by the new leader of the RPA.

The fact is that the party’s decision, taken at the famous Congress in 2007, to in essence elect Serzh Sargsyan as Co-President, something that was the brain-child of Antranik Margaryan, merely had tactical significance. It’s objective was to create levers with which to keep the developing Prosperous Armenia Party, which had programs designed to take power, under the authority of the RPA.

By the way, it wasn’t the first time that Andranik Margaryan used this ploy. In 1998, with the same aim in mind, he permitted Vazgen Sargsyan to become the President of the Republican Party and, by agreeing to his stipulation that the Party be filled with “yerkrapah” (defenders of the land) individuals, was able to bring the RPA to power.

Antranik Margaryan made those “sacrifices” however all the while understanding that without creating an internal counterbalance the party could actually slip from his fingers. So Margaryan relying upon the ideological Republicans, assumed that counterbalancing role himself, the role of balancing the relationship of the inner forces. His untimely and tragic death however didn’t permit him to accomplish the same scenario with Serzh Sargsyan. While it was purely a tactical step for Margaryan his colleagues took it for a principled approach.

As for Tigran Torosyan who, after the death of Margaryan, automatically assumed the role of the Party’s second in command and the actual leader of the ideological Republicans, never was able to or never desired to formulate similar vital internal counterbalancing mechanisms during the last one and a half year process. He never attempted to coalesce true Republicans around an ideological platform without whose support Serzh Sargsyan, of course, wouldn’t have been able to make such personnel shifts.

As a result only Kamouflyan is left from the Republican ideology and its adherents, while the influence of the new leader has become complete and perfected. In this new state of affairs none of the old Republicans can be assured that what happened to Tigran Torosyan will not be their fate as well. Put more succinctly, all in the RPA now understand that, sooner or later, those same chickens will “come home to roost” on their door as well. The presence of this constant fear has given root to a totally new chapter in the party of individual decision-making.  

Objective #2 - Guarantee Regime Continuity and Prepare for Upcoming Parliamentary Elections

Besides changing the inner make-up of the party, this operation designed to quickly remove Tigran Torosyan from office also had an important political significance. According to the Constitution the post of  Presidency of the National Assembly (NA) was second in line to assume the responsibilities and legitimacy to govern  the nation in the event of the President’s absence or inability to act effectively. By “nominating” Hovik Abrahamyan to that position Serzh Sargsyan , in effect, protected his flank since, in terms of trustworthiness, Hovik Abrahamyan and Tigran Torosyan are worlds apart.

Moreover, the fact that Torosyan was forced to resign shows that he is generally untrustworthy in the eyes of the regime. On the other hand, Serzh Sargsyan can rest peacefully after the installation of Hovik Abrahamyan as NA President knowing that in the event of the most unexpected and undesirable of developments, when he is left with no other “out” than tendering his resignation, the duties of the office of President will be turned over to the former chief of his campaign headquarters, a person who without any problem can secure the selection of a suitable person, both for himself and the present regime,  for the post. In other words, in this manner he is attempting to secure the continuity of the regime in office.

Besides this, he is also creating serious prerequisites for an offensive. And, in all probability, his “offensive” will occur in the field of personnel policy. As is known, the personnel (staff) policies implemented by President Sargsyan, in the first instance, don’t satisfy the Republican Party itself, or more correctly, its ideological wing.

The President is attempting to shake the official state apparatus free from certain Republican elements, by securing the entry of new, fresh political forces. In this manner Serzh Sargsyan is first trying to reinvigorate his team which is viewed with extreme dissatisfaction by the public.

Secondly, he is trying to secure for himself a field with a wider specter of political support.

And this is natural because presently the regime is maintained only by the temporary confluence of interests of centrifugal forces - Prosperous Armenia and the ARF, both outside his sphere of influence, and the Rule of Law Party, an organization for whom the word “trust” is a foreign concept. If those interest suddenly collided tomorrow then the regime of Serzh Sargsyan would burst like a balloon and the President understands this better than anyone.

The role of Hovik Abrahamyan in the Parliament will be pivotal. He will attempt, on the one hand, to preserve the existing consensus regarding the correlation of forces and, on the other hand, by increasing the influence of Serzh Sargsyan on the Parliament, to insure a certain level of comprehension on the part of the coalition forces, including within Republican circles in the first place, regarding future personnel changes being put into place by Serzh Sargsyan. In other words, he will try to do things so that the personnel changes envisaged by Serzh Sargsyan to create a new political support base in the Parliament will not give way to major tremors.

The final aim of all this is to bring to maturation a whole new political reality by the eve of the upcoming parliamentary elections; a reality in which the influence of Prosperous Armenia, and by extension Robert Kocharyan, as well as the Rule of Law and the ARF, will not be so decisive a factor. By decreasing the influence of these forces also translates into decreased dependence on them too.

Tigran Torosyan - Not the Last Sacrifice of Social Accommodation

That the resignation of the President of the National Assembly didn’t lead to any internal political tension is a noteworthy fact. This clearly points out that the NA really has no influence on the political processes at play.

In other words, it was proven once again that the principle of the separation of the branches of power absolutely doesn’t operate in the general system of governance since the most important institution in the counterbalancing equation, which is formed through direct elections, is absolutely not fulfilling its political function. This means that the Parliament has totally lost its ability to resist and defend itself.. This, however, isn’t a system-wide problem but simply a result of the political culture developed within us or more aptly put, the absence thereof..

In the final analysis, what happened to Tigran Torosyan had deep social roots. It’s a direct manifestation, of the evident and shameful widespread attitude of appeasement and accommodation that has taken root in our society and which has assumed the role of regulating our social life.

The whole of society is so afflicted. Such is the entire system of social and work relations that we have cultivated within us. None of us really starts to seriously think about injustice, indifference and the culture of accommodation until that time when we find ourselves neck-deep in the muck and mire. Only then to we notice that we are all alone.