Last week inYerevanan international conference on European Union andSouth Caucasuscooperation and problems took place. Hetq was able to speak with Ivlian Khaindrava, who heads the Georgian Diversity Development andCooperationCenterand has been a member of the Georgian Parliament from 1990-1995 and 2004-2008, as well as with Aleksander Rousetski, the Director of SCRIS (South Caucasus Institute for Regional Security) and Administrator of the Helsinki Committee inGeorgia.

Ivlian Khaindrava's address was the most interesting of the conference. He severely criticized the Georgian authorities as well as Europe and the United Statesin connection with recent developments by bringing forth targeted and clever arguments. According to him, the soft tongue of European diplomacy is experiencing a crisis of character while the question of Georgian democracy continues to be of vital import.

When asked by Hetq if regime change was a possibility in Georgia in the near future Ivlian Khaindrava answered, "It is hard for me to picture that Mikhail Saakashvili will bring to an end his second and last presidential term. It is correct that I not only have a degree of optimism, because I'd like to see the regime in Georgia change, but also some concerns given that, nevertheless, if such a possibility is given to him, I find it hard to imagine that he will compose himself for another four years and that he'll leave the stage of grand politics as the person responsible for the loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Thus, not only is there a desire here to change for the better but to avoid anything worse." 

According to Ivlian Khaindrava, the situation that Georgia finds it in today is unstable and dangerous. Thus, any change must be gradual and calm, to prevent additional damage. For this to happen it is necessary to open up the field of media, to inform people, to return to a system of checks and balances, to guarantee the supremacy of the law and carry out special parliamentary elections so that it becomes a truly representative body. 

"After all this it will become clear whether or not it is necessary to change the president or whether there is only the need to restrict his authority, in order to circumvent any unreasoned moves coming out of the presidential office." noted the expert. Even though Ivlian Khaindrava was a supporter of and participated in the 'Rose Revolution' he believes that it is not always possible to change the regime by way of a revolution or other upheavals. This must be achieved by following the constitutional route, through free and fair elections. 

We asked, what were the chances that Nino Burjanadze, the former Georgian Parliamentary Speaker, could come to power. As is well known, Nino Burjanadze recently came out severely critical of the regime and called for new elections in Georgia. 

"Burjanadze directed some 43 questions to Saakashvili, to which it wouldn't have hurt if she answered at least 33 because she was the closest ally of Saakashvili, the second personage in the hierarchy and, as the Parliament Speaker for four years straight, painted over all the illegalities of Saakashvili." noted Khaindrava. 

In Khaindrava's estimation, the aspirations of Burjanadze don't correspond to the temperament of the society given that her popularity ratings are lower than some other opposition political leaders. "Thus, it's not a wise move on her part to set preconditions before she will cooperate with other political forces." Khaindrava commented.

He continued that, "Burjanadze, nevertheless, has a place in the country's political landscape and if she aligns her political ambitions with the current problems facing Georgia, specifically the domestic ones, she can come to an agreement with moderate political forces." 

Regarding the recent scandalous development in which the presidents of Poland and Georgia participated, Khaindrava stated that, according to the latest information, there were indeed shots fired from the Ossetia side. "As an individual in whose veins flows a bit of Polish blood I have a great deal of sympathy with that country, but I believe that the Polish president doesn't always act according to his rank when it comes to Georgia. I believe that the Polish president has made more trips to Georgia than anyone else from Europe and not all of his visits have been fruitful or corresponded to political necessity. I think that he has gone somewhat overboard."

As to whether Russia has lost Georgia for good or whether there is the possibility to normalize relations, say in the case of regime change in Georgia, the expert noted, "We are neighbors and you don't choose your neighbors. The current situation of Georgian-Russian relations isn't normal and they haven't been normal for quite a while. What I say might ring a bit fanciful but I believe that there must be signs from the Russian side that will help allay the fears of the Georgian society somewhat, since the Russian operations in August were perceived as acts of aggression." 

According to Khaindrava, not only is it possible for Georgia and Russia to find areas of common interest in theory and in practice but to enter into dialogue regarding possible cooperation on those areas of common interest. For this to happen however, there first must be a change in the rhetoric on both sides, but especially from Moscow. This must be linked to some symbolic move, for example the pulling out of the Akhalgor region. "If this were to happen the Georgian side would receive evidence that something has changed in Russia and that it is possible to talk with Russia." the expert noted. 

In his address at the conference Ivian Khaindrava clearly divided the West into the United States and Europe. We were interested to know where he saw the future of Georgia, with the U.S. or with Europe? "I am fully convinced that the future of Georgia is with Europe because Georgia doesn\'t have the possibility and, I hope, the desire to be transformed into the 51st state of the United States. Georgia has the possibility to become a member of a unified Europe even though, in all cases, it is the immediate neighbor of Europe. Sadly, in the foreign policy of Georgia there has been an evident misbalance between Washington and Brussels, in the favor of Washington, and this too needs to be corrected…In terms of civilization, for centuries Georgia has looked to the West and now it must realize its centuries-old ambition by concrete action."

In the words of the expert the August crisis also showed the European  how dangerous it is to keep conflicts frozen, since they can explode at any given moment, and the necessity of showing appropriate attention on one's immediate neighbors.

In general terms, Europe must clearly comprehend and formulate its interests regarding the southern Caucasus. Europe must send clear messages as to what it expects from us because those confusing and sometimes contradictory messages that we receive from Europe throw our citizens off balance and allow our leaders to exploit them." concluded Khaindrava

Alexander Rousetski, the Director of SCIRS, focused more on Armenian-Georgian relations in his talk with Hetq, but he also touched upon the domestic state of affairs in Georgia.

"I agree that there should be more choice in Georgia and that the regime should change by non-violent means. I think that the present authorities have exhausted all their real possibilities and that a new set of leaders must come to power but sadly the crop of oppositional political figures at present do not instill one with optimism. There is a problem of personnel. Personally, I do not see any forceful political leaders that can come to power after the 'Rose Revolutionist' and change the situation towards the better."

The mutual relations between Georgia and Armenia are of special interest to SCIRS. "Armenia and Georgia are two neighbors that have a long history of mutual relations. Sadly, those problems that arise within these relations aren't being settled satisfactorily. I believe that Georgian-Armenian relations aren't presently on the level that they should be." stated Rousetski.

The reason for all this, according to him, is that we haven't come to the understanding that we inhabit one region and that regional politics must be formulated with the participation of all. "Regional governments shouldn\'t be in opposing camps and be engaged in inflicting injury on the other. Rather, they should cooperate and create such fruits of cooperation that are beneficial to the peoples of all three nations."

The Institute has drafted a plan to establish a Georgian-Armenian research center. It envisages the formation of a working group of Armenian and Georgian specialists that will constantly monitor processes in the field of Armenian-Georgian relations with the aim to make corrections and to place them on a higher qualitative level. A similar project is envisaged regarding Georgian-Azerbaijani relations

The SCIRS organization has been conducting research for five years already. It carries out monitoring of the press and it has amassed huge amounts of information on problems in that sector. "Not only do we carry out monitoring activities but we also work with reporters and explain to them , for example, that certain terms that they employ can stoke inter-ethnic animosities and decrease the level of tolerance within society." notes Mr. Rousetski.

Currently the Institute cooperates with a judicial organization with which it carries out work towards creating mechanisms to settle these problems in a legal fashion. The aim is to reach the possibility of a legal settlement to the problem so that those newspapers that engage in the sowing of inter-ethnic hostility are held accountable for their actions..
 
However, Mr. Rousetski expressed his concern that bilateral projects and initiatives aren't popular and not financed by various foundations and that their work is unilateral. "For this reason we are searching for enthusiastic individuals and specialists from the Armenian side who would be interested with the program and would like to cooperate with us."