The reforms in the education system have reached an interesting stage. The current minister of education, Sergo Yeritsyan, got his post by criticizing the so-called optimization program. But upon assuming his post, he continued the process, insisting in numerous press conferences that he was condemned to continue the policies adopted earlier. And lately, he has begun to justify the approach. The program called “optimization” is, in fact, being debated exclusively in the political sphere. No government official dares to clearly present to the public the demographic processes that led to its implementation.

What has been going on

The years 1985 to 1992 might be called a demographic boom inArmenia, with the highest birth rate of the 20th century. The economic crisis that unfolded in 1992 was accompanied by a drastic drop in births, along with a massive wave of emigration. The government officially acknowledges that the population has decreased by 600,000-700,000. Demographers and economists who deal with the problems of migration have warned that people of reproductive age are the first to leave the country. But these studies have slipped public attention. The consequences of the drop in the birth rate will be felt in public life years from now.

Because children born between 1985 and 1992 reached school age in the mid-1990s, a contradictory picture has emerged - on the one hand emigration and a lower birth rate, on the other, an increase in number of school children. In 2002 there were 1,444 schools in Armenia-more than in the Soviet Armenia.

The state was aware of the rise in the number of students, and for decades, more teachers have been graduating from various colleges than the education system needed. 1996 to 1999 were peak years for schools in terms of quantitative indices. In 1999 there was a record number of students inArmenia- 602,500. The number of teachers went up in parallel, and in 1999 there was a record number of them as well - 62,000. Indeed, the abundance of educators made it possible to admit the unprecedented number of students. Last year as many students were admitted to schools as those who graduated- about 45,000. This figure is understandable, since only 80-85 percent of students admitted to first grade complete tenth grade.

Before the ministry of education began officially implementing the optimization program, it had been compelling school principals to discharge teachers. But principals and teachers came up with an original solution in response. By mutual consent, many teachers began working part time. So two teachers were filling one position.

The current picture

The government doesn't want to take the trouble to inform the public why it has undertaken to implement the school optimization program. One reason for this is that the program is unavoidable because of the sharp decrease in the number of students since 1999. In 1996 there were 580,000 school students, in 1997 this number was 591,000, in 1998 it went up to 596,000, and in 1999 nearly 603,000. But since then it has declined - to 580,000 in 2000, 572,000 in 2001, and down to 535,000 in 2002. Looking at recent birth rates, it becomes clear that the number of students will continue to go down. To illustrate, in 1998 there were 43,400 children under the age of one inArmenia, but in 2002 there were only 31,600. Thus, fewer children will go to school each year, which means that the government will be required to reduce the number of teachers. Today the teacher-students ratio is 1 to 8-11. In the Shirak, Aragatsotn and Syunik Marzes the number of teachers is particularly large. According to education officials, this number is twice what international standards require - in the countries of the European Union there is one teacher per 17 students.

The official claim that only teachers of retirement age would be discharged was quickly put to rest, as their number is just 3,500-much lower than the number of teachers to be let go. New official explanations were invented, such as the absence of professional training. This too is problematic, since university educated physicists or biologists with several years of teaching experience can hardly be considered under-qualified. The current and the former ministers have been quite public in their ruthless condemnation of the optimization program. But this means little, since in practice, it is they who support and implement the program. And they do so for a simple reason - they are aware of the demographics.

Attempting to understand

Today the number of children in third through seventh grade (10-14 years old) is 371,400. And the number of children ten years younger (1-4 years old) is just 151,300. Thus, in ten years the number of third to seventh graders will decrease 2.5 times. And inevitably, the state will have to reduce the number of teachers along with them.

At first glance, it seems odd that the government doesn’t inform the public about the real causes of the reform called optimization. No one admits publicly that this is just the beginning, and more and more teachers will be discharged each year. Of course, a school only has meaning if it has students, but perhaps the real reason they don’t talk about the drastic drop expected in the number of 10-14 year-olds ten years from now, is that five years after that, the number of draftees will go down by the same 2.5 times. And this is a national security problem about which the bureaucrats simply prefer to keep silent.