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Tatul Hakobyan

Presidents Kocharyan and Aliyev Look for the "Key" to the Settlement in Rambouillet Palace

There are two key issues in negotiations: the status of Nagorno Karabakh and the withdrawal of troops from the Armenian-controlled territories.

Negotiations on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict took place on February 10-11, 2006 in Paris and in Rambouillet at the initiative of French President Jacques Chirac. This was Ilham Aliyev's sixth meeting with the Armenian president since he succeeded his father in the fall of 2003.

At Palais de l'Élysée, Jacques Chirac had 45-minute separate meetings behind closed doors first with Robert Kocharyan and then with Ilham Aliyev after which the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents headed for the Rambouillet Palace. Altogether, the negotiations between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan lasted for four hours. Their first meeting took place in the presence of the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group and the foreign ministers of the two countries, followed by tête -à-tête meetings.

Sabina Fraizer, International Crisis Group Representative for the South Caucasus, who attaches great importance to the negotiations, told us: "I think the Paris meeting is crucially important. It is the first time that the presidents meet tête-à-tête to talk only on Nagorno-Karabakh. Of course, last year they met twice, but this was on the margins of other international meetings. I would say that it is the first meeting of this kind, perhaps in the past five years after Key West. I think that at this point everybody has to be very realistic and understand that this is the first meeting of this kind and hopefully some kind of small document will come out of it, most important, some kind of political commitment by the two presidents."

The talks were held behind closed doors; no media representatives were invited to Rambouillet and no statements were made by the parties following the negotiations.

According to Reuters, P resident Chirac's spokesman Jérôme Bonnafont said that Chirac had wished the visiting presidents luck in the next phase of the talks, which he hoped would open up new prospects for peace. "In the current situation there is a chance to lay down the basis of a settlement," Bonnafont quoted Chirac as telling Kocharyan and Aliyev. "He (Chirac) assured both presidents of the international community's desire to support peace efforts and the implementation of an accord". No other details have been reported to the press.

Five years ago, in March 2001, despite pronouncedly optimistic statements by the mediators, the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents Robert Kocharyan and Heydar Aliyev - again in Paris, again with Chirac's mediation - failed to find the "key" to the Karabakh settlement. At that time, the then-American co-chairman of the Minsk Group, Carey Cavanaugh, insisted that the parties were extremely close to a settlement. However the Paris talks that continued in Key West, Florida reached a deadlock after Baku repudiated the agreements reached. Heydar Aliyev stated publicly that "the Minsk Group co-chairmen demanded an independent status for Nagorno Karabakh," but "there cannot be a second independent Armenian state in the Azerbaijani neighborhood."

The US State Department also attached great importance to the Paris meeting of the presidents. According to BBC, a senior US State Department official said on Thursday that the Rambouillet talks amounted to "the most important meeting in at least five years regarding this conflict." Before leaving for Paris, Ilham Aliyev had a telephone conversation with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. We remind you that five years, ago after the Key West talks, President George W. Bush received Robert Kocharyan and Heydar Aliyev at the White House. But President Bush's intervention also failed to serve as an incentive for the settlement, since the late Aliyev was trying to accomplish a more important task at the time, that of transferring his throne to his son.

What has changed in the course of the past five years? The position of Baku has stiffened, the Nagorno Karabakh authorities have, in essence, been left out the negotiating process - not without Yerevan's "help", and as for Ilham Aliyev, he has threatened before every meeting at the presidents' level and, generally, in almost all his speeches and interviews, to solve the problem through military means.

One of the components of the settlement of the most intricate conflicts are specific measures aimed at shaping tolerance within the societies that treat each other with animosity - something that is not being done. Moreover, after inheriting power from his father, Ilham Aliyev called upon Azerbaijani NGOs to cease their relations with their Armenian counterparts and advised his country's historians to write papers asserting that Armenians are newcomers in Karabakh.

Writer and publicist Zory Balayan believes that an attempt is being made to impose a settlement on the Armenians of Artsakh. Balayan has no expectations of the Kocharyan-Aliyev meeting. "It's just another meeting. In the past Robert Kocharyan would meet with Heydar Aliyev; now he meets with Aliyev Junior. For me, this is just ordinary. The question should be posed differently. The impression arises that everything is going to begin from a blank slate. As if the past didn't exist, there was no Sumgait, Baku, Shushi [anti-Armenian pogroms at the outset of the conflict], as if everything is forgotten. What settlement can we talk about when the Budapest murderer is being made a hero [ Lieutenant Gurgen Margarian posted to Budapest to participate in the NATO 'Partnership for Peace' Programme's English language training course, was murdered in his sleep with an axe by an Azerbaijani military officer attending the same course] , the Armenian khachkars are being destroyed in the territory of today's Azerbaijan," Balayan told us.

On the eve of the Paris negotiations the Defence of Liberated Territories public initiative, which unites a group of veterans of the Karabakh war, made a more rigid statement: "In defiance of the rights of the Armenian people and against its will, Robert Kocharyan and his ruling team has put up for sale the liberated territories of Artsakh and the security of Armenia's eastern borders."

The statement also maintains that the fact of the Paris meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan attests that both official Yerevan and Baku have already given their preliminary consent to well-known and recently zealously propagandized principles: the immediate surrender of the liberated territories to Azerbaijan, the introduction of a foreign military contingent, the resettlement of Azerbaijanis in Artsakh (including the liberated territories), and the holding, years hence, of a referendum in the territory of former NKAO (Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast) under the condition that the resettled Azerbaijanis will take part in it as well.

An unnamed Armenian foreign ministry official told Deutsche Presse-Agentur ( DPA) in a telephone interview from Yerevan, "There is room for hope that we can get past one or two of the major obstacles." According to DPA, the official said that two crucial issues needed to be dealt with at Rambouillet: 1) The withdrawal of Armenian troops which is demanded by Azerbaijan. The Armenian official said Yerevan was ready to consider pulling back its forces currently stationed in territory around Nagorno-Karabakh belonging to Azerbaijan. 2) The right of self-determination for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. The residents of Nagorno-Karabakh would have to decide their own future, said the official, adding that Armenia wants a referendum but Azerbaijan objects.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamadyarov stated on February 6 th that the Azerbaijanis would not agree to hold a referendum in Nagorno Karabakh, even in 15 years time, because "it's hard to believe that the Armenians of Karabakh will have a desire to be part of Azerbaijan."

BBC, in its turn, quoting unnamed diplomats reports that in Rambouillet Kocharyan and Aliyev have discussed the status of Nagorno Karabakh, which is the most controversial issue at all negotiations. But speaking to us, Sabina Fraizer of the International Crisis Group said: "I would say that the hope is that the Paris meeting will conclude with a very short document, a kind of set of principles, which would then lay out how the negotiations can move forth. So, we cannot expect that in Paris there will be a comprehensive peace settlement that will come out, but I think we can say that the biggest hope is that there would be a kind of 'road map'. Even if we get a kind of document like that it would be significant, because that would be the first time that such document is agreed upon by the presidents. But let's not exaggerate, there will not be a final peace settlement".

If the international community and two of the co-chair states of the Minsk Group, France and the US, adhere to cautious optimism and consider 2006 to be a year of opportunity for the settlement of the conflict, Russia and one of the conflicting parties, Nagorno Karabakh, have a more realistic approach. In Fraizer's words, "I believe firmly that the Russian government is committed to the peaceful solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Particularly, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are working excellently, and very possibly the Russian and American co-chairs have never worked as closely together as they are today. So I think that Russia has an interest in the conflict resolution, and I think that they understand that they will have greater economic opportunities in the region if there is a solution. There might be some forces in Russia less interested in the solution, and I think that the Russian government's position as a whole is very clear. Concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh authorities, of course I understand that they are frustrated with the situation and with the fact that they are not participating directly in the talks. However, my understanding is that the Minsk Group co-chairs have kept them informed and of course the Yerevan authorities have kept them informed. In our reports we recommend inclusion of the Nagorno-Karabakh authorities sooner rather than later in the negotiations process, but we understand that any implementation of the solution will be impossible without Stepanakert's involvement."

Zardusht Alizade, a well-known political scientist in Azerbaijan, believes that "this false confidentiality" in the negotiations must be stopped and measures must be taken to overcome the present hatred between the Armenian and the Azerbaijani peoples, to create an atmosphere of tolerance. "So long as the anti-Armenian propaganda in Azerbaijan, which we - men of science - oppose, continues, and the Armenians don't free themselves from the complex of perceiving Turks as enemies it will be impossible to settle the Karabakh conflict," he told us.

Opposition leader Eldar Namazov does not anticipate any "diplomatic breakthrough". He said that the Armenian and the Azerbaijani presidents lack the resource of legitimacy; therefore, it will be hard for them to make bold, painful compromises. "If people today don't take to the streets because of social problems, in the case of Karabakh they will," Namazov maintained.

On the eve of the Paris negotiations, President Aliyev said, "Nothing has changed in the position of Azerbaijan. I stated it on many occasions and would like to repeat again today that the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is not an object for negotiations. Thus, there will be no concession on the issue of territorial integrity. Azerbaijan will not allow Nagorno Karabakh to secede, not today, not tomorrow, not in hundred years."

Several days ago in Stockholm, Kocharyan stated in response that he had felt "cautious optimism as regards to the prospects for the settlement, but after the recent statements by representatives of the Azerbaijani government it has turned into very cautious optimism."

"There is little hope that the negotiations with Aliyev in Baku might initiate work aimed at a comprehensive agreement," the Armenian president said, adding, "The people of Nagorno Karabakh have not only realized they right to self-determination in accordance with international standards, but have preserved it in the war imposed on them. Nagorno Karabakh has never been a part of an independent Azerbaijan and has nothing to do with the territorial integrity of that state."

"Over the past 15 years a generation has grown up in Nagorno Karabakh that has never lived in, and has no intention of living in, Azerbaijan; irreversible changes have taken place in the minds of the people," Kocharyan said.

Apropos, UEFA has decided that the first of two matches in the qualifying group stage of the European Football Championship 2008 between the Armenian and the Azerbaijani national teams will take place in Baku and the second in Yerevan. If the matches are not held in Baku or Yerevan the host team will incur technical defeat.

P.S. The Associated Press reported "the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan failed to reach agreement Saturday after two days of talks on how to end a bloody conflict over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh."

"Despite intensive discussions, the positions of the parties on some difficult principles remained as they have been for some months," U.S., French, and Russian mediators said in a statement.

However, the statement announced that Presidents Kocharyan and Aliyev had instructed their foreign ministers to continue negotiations to find new ways for a future settlement. It is already known that the next meeting between Vartan Oskanyan and Elmar Mamadyarov will take place in early March in Washington, DC. The co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group will also take part in the talks.

Quoting a source close to the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks, AP reported: "The sticking points were the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh and whether Armenian forces would withdraw from the border region of Kelbajar."

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