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Кристине Агаларян

Грузия и Иран: торговля открытых границ

За последние семь лет максимальный объем поставок из Грузии в Армению был зарегистрирован в прошлом году, когда общая стоимость товаров, импортированных из соседней страны в Армению, превысила 65 млн долларов. Между тем в торговых отношениях с нашим южным соседом – Исламской Республикой Иран – наиболее результативным можно назвать 2012 год, когда объем поставок превысил 219 млн долларов.

По данным Национальной статистической службы РА, максимальные объемы экспорта из Армении в соседнюю Грузию были зарегистрированы в 2011 и 2012 гг. В последние годы объемы экспорта в Иран заметно сократились. За первые семь месяцев этого года из Грузии было импортировано товаров на сумму около 32 млн драмов. 


Комментарии (3)

The Economist
Dear Hetq, I would need to see a longer time series and a breakdown by goods and services. These figures should also be viewed in the context of how large the economies of Georgia and Iran are, respectively. The export figures to Georgia would seem more significant given that country's relatively smaller economy and population compared to Iran. Both Iran and Georgia should be considered natural export markets for Armenia, and the governments of the three countries can do a lot more to spur inter-state trade and investment, and cross-technology cooperation, much more than the signing of state protocols. Assuming your data series are accurate (the source is not identified), the more significant and possibly worrying inflection point is the sharp drop in exports to both countries from Armenia in 2012-2013. If this continues and we have confirmation of a trend, it would be a negative for Armenia's trade balance with these two countries. Armenia is already a large net importer of Russian goods and services. The trade balance is tilted in favor of Russia with Armenia as a net importer. The devaluation of the ruble will make Russian exports even more competitive in foreign, including Armenian markets, and this could have another negative impact on Armenia's trade balance with Russia. It is important for Armenia's government to have a coherent trade and industrial policy to spur exports. Given the Dram's competitive valuation relative to other key currencies (USD, EUR), this should be possible. The challenge is to have a coherent policy to spur exports to Georgia, Iran and Russia. There is no such strategic policy of the sort at the state level at the moment. The economy is largely a reflection of domestic production and consumption, with net exports being a tiny contributor, and here you have two important markets in close proximity where Armenian goods and services can be sold, including spending by tourists from Iran and Georgia which is recorded as an export. So as a practical step, let's be a little nicer to our neighbors with whom we have official open borders, and put aside our prejudices. Every Dram they spend in Armenia counts as an export.
The Economist - The source of the above data comes from Armenia's National Statistical Service. It was inadvertently left out but has now been corrected. We appreciate your input ans supplemental observations.
the economist
These graphs are commendable and so are the data presented; however, Hetq, it would be a more ocmplete analysis if you explained the trends and the reversal. In other words, why?

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