The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry has been issuing several daily reports recently claiming that Armenian armed forces have fired at Azerbaijani military positions, indicating the date, time, and direction. 

The Armenian Defense Ministry has denied all such claims. As of March 20, 2025, the Armenian Defense Ministry has issued twelve such denials.

While such Azerbaijani claims are nothing new for people in Armenia, their recent intensity is causing some concern. In an interview with Radio Liberty, Senior Researcher at the APRI Armenia Analytical Center Beniamin Poghosyan said the purpose of such accusations by Baku is to create the impression globally that peace negotiations between the two countries are at a deadlock, and the goal is to prepare the ground among the international community to justify possible military actions.

Have similar Azerbaijani claims been followed by military actions in the past, and how realistic is the view that Azerbaijan, by issuing such claims, is preparing the ground for military actions? To answer these questions, Hetq studied the statements of the Armenian Ministry of Defense during 2021-2024 and January-March 2025. Among them, we highlighted those that refuted the statements of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense accusing the Armenian military of firing at Azerbaijani combat positions.

Numbers instead of hypotheses

In 2021, compared to subsequent years, Armenia’s Defense Ministry issued seven denials. In 2022, the number increased to seventy-six. That year, denials were issued every month, but their number didn’t exceed ten per month, except for September when fourteen were issued. Azerbaijan attacked Armenia that month, causing human and territorial losses.

The statistics for 2023 confirm the widespread public opinion in Armenia that Armenian denial statements are followed by Azerbaijani military operations. In 2023, the Armenian Defense Ministry issued seventy-three denials, 59% of which were published between August 13 and September 19. On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan attacked the Republic of Artsakh, which had been under blockade for nine months, resulting in the depopulation of Artsakh. In October, November and December 2023, the Armenian Defense Ministry Ministry did not issue any denials.

In 2024, there were also Azerbaijani claims reporting that Armenian troops fired on Azerbaijani positions, but not every month․ Most were made in the first two weeks of April  - seven. 

These seven official Azerbaijani statements preceded the border demarcation and delineation work conducted in Armenia’s Tavush Province. During 2024, Azerbaijan issued six statements each in June, August, and September.

Armenian Defense Ministry changes the script

In 2021, the Armenian Defense Ministry, in addition to qualifying the statement of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry as disinformation, wrote, for example, "...today too, it did not refrain from provocative information actions," or "...if necessary, it only conducts actions to counter the adversary." This approach changes in subsequent years.

In February 2022, the Armenian Defense Ministry, in its denial text, also called on the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense to “…refrain from the practice of disseminating information that does not correspond to reality regarding the border situation.” 

Prior to September 2022, the Armenian Defense Ministry statements were alike, mainly changing the day, time, and direction of the border zone. They ended with: “The situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is relatively stable and is under the full control of the RA Armed Forces.” 

After Azerbaijan’s September 2022 incursion into Armenia, the sentence “… is under the full control of the RA Armed Forces” was left out of the Ministry of Defense communiques.

In 2023, the Armenian Defense Ministry did not use the above formulations at all and limited itself to saying that the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense’s report about Armenian shooting in the direction of their positions was disinformation and did not correspond to reality. Interestingly, in several similar messages in 2023, the Armenian Defense Ministry also noted: "...the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry is creating an information basis for another provocation."

During 2024, the Armenian Defense Ministry became more explicit in its denials, noting what claims the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry had disseminated and declaring them “disinformation”. 

Starting in August 2024, the Armenian denials also included: "...the Staff of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia has proposed to the Staff of the President of Azerbaijan to create a bilateral mechanism for investigating cases of ceasefire violations." 

A brief time later, also included in the denials are the words “to which Azerbaijan has not responded to this day.” 

This text was preserved until March 17, 2025. The above Armenian proposal was supplemented by another one: “…..The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia reaffirms that, in accordance with the position of the Prime Minister’s Office of the Republic of Armenia, it is ready to investigate the facts substantiating the report of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, in case they are transferred to the Republic of Armenia.” 

As in the case of the previous proposal, this time, after a short while, the new proposal was followed by the following text: “….At the moment, the Republic of Azerbaijan has not transferred to the Republic of Armenia any factual data or justification of the violation of the ceasefire regime by the units of the RA Armed Forces.”

(Data collection and processing methodology: Data were collected from the website of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia using the Python programming language. Hetq used the words “Does not correspond” and “Misinformation” as keywords to identify publications in which the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia denied the statements of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan that the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia violated the ceasefire regime. The selected articles were checked to avoid repetition. The data were collected on March 19, 2025.)

Top photo: Hayk Makiyan/©Hetq